Bundesliga · Matchday 9 
Our pick Away win Correct result
Can Mainz Make Bayern Work for It?
Bayern arrive unbeaten in eight league matches and top of the table, but Mainz’s latest meeting with them ended 4-3. The hosts need to turn that attacking threat into a result despite a difficult home record.
📍 MEWA Arena
Preview written:
All Matchday 9 matches Full head-to-head
Match report
Final result: FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 11–26; Shots on target: 1–9; Corners: 7–8; Expected goals: 0.64–2.7.
Goals
- 14' Joshua Kimmich · Harry Kane · Bayern München
- 57' Lennart Karl · Harry Kane · Bayern München
- 90+2' Phillip Tietz · Benedict Hollerbach · FSV Mainz 05
Cards
- 76' Konrad Laimer · Bayern München
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: H. Kane (Bayern München) 8.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
FSV Mainz 05 · 3-5-2
- 27R. ZentnerG
- 21D. da CostaD
- 3F. GruberD
- 48K. PotulskiD
- 19A. CaciM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 6K. SanoM
- 10N. AmiriM
- 30S. WidmerM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
Coach: U. Fischer
Bayern München · 4-2-3-1
- 1M. NeuerG
- 27K. LaimerD
- 2D. UpamecanoD
- 4J. TahD
- 44J. StanišićD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 45A. PavlovićM
- 17M. OliseM
- 11N. BrownM
- 42L. KarlM
- 9H. KaneF
Coach: V. Kompany
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| FSV Mainz 05 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Bayern München | 3.4 | 1.0 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayern München | 8 | +19 | 18 |
| 9 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
Last meetings
- 2026 FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München
- 2025 Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05
- 2025 Bayern München 3-0 FSV Mainz 05
- 2024 FSV Mainz 05 2-1 Bayern München
- 2024 FSV Mainz 05 0-4 Bayern München
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Strong
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.47 – 2.84
- Double chance
- 12 · 83%1X 34% · X2 83%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 80%Over 1.5: 93% · Over 3.5: 62%
- Both teams score
- 73%
- Clean sheet
- 6% – 23%FSV Mainz 05–Bayern München
- Half-time result
- 2 · 52%1 19% · X 29%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 45%X/2 16% · 1/1 10%
- Expected corners
- 9.74.2 – 5.5 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.9 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 48%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Bayern’s lead, Mainz’s challenge
Bayern München have scored 27 goals in eight Bundesliga matches, more than three per game, and arrive in Mainz as league leaders. FSV Mainz 05 sit ninth, eight points and eight places behind, so the gap is clear. Yet the hosts have reason to believe they can make this a contest: their most recent meeting was a 4-3 Bayern win in Mainz, with the home side scoring three.
The stakes are straightforward. Bayern can protect their position at the top, while Mainz have a chance to show that the standings do not tell the whole story when the sides meet at the MEWA Arena.
Contrasting recent runs
Mainz have lost their last two league matches. Across their last five, they have won twice and lost three times, scoring 11 goals but conceding 14. Their home form is a particular concern: a draw and three defeats in four league games, with 10 goals conceded.
Bayern, by contrast, are unbeaten in eight league matches, with five wins and three draws. They have scored 20 times in their last five, conceding six, and their latest league match ended in a draw. Away from home, they have two wins and two draws from four matches.
Recent meetings bring goals
The last five meetings across competitions have produced three Bayern wins, one Mainz win and one draw. All five had more than two goals, and the latest, in April 2026, finished 4-3 to Bayern in Mainz. The hosts also beat Bayern 2-1 at home in December 2024, evidence that an upset is possible, even if Bayern have had the upper hand overall.
The numbers behind the test
Mainz have scored 17 and conceded 17 in eight league matches, while Bayern’s goal difference is +19. The visitors have conceded only eight goals in the league and have kept two clean sheets. Mainz have three clean sheets overall, but just one at home.
That combination makes the challenge clear: Mainz have shown they can score against Bayern, but must find a way to contain a side in strong form.
Our prediction
Mainz’s attacking threat and the open recent meetings point to another competitive game, but Bayern’s unbeaten run, superior scoring record and stronger defensive numbers give them the edge. PreviaXI’s model also favours the visitors, with a narrow away win its most likely outcome.
FSV Mainz 05 1-2 Bayern München
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