Can Liverpool’s winning run continue at Fenerbahçe?
Liverpool arrive in Istanbul after winning all three of their Champions League matches, while Fenerbahçe seek a response after a difficult start to the league phase. The hosts’ home record in this competition offers a reason for confidence.
📍 Chobani Stadium
Preview written:
All League phase, matchday 4 matches
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fenerbahçe | 1.2 | 1.3 |
| Liverpool | 4.0 | 2.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Liverpool | 3 | +5 | 9 |
| 31 | Fenerbahçe | 3 | -6 | 2 |
Absences
Fenerbahçe
- OutN. Ake · Muscle Injury
- OutM. Asensio · Knee Injury
- OutA. Diouf · Off the roster
- OutA. Fall · Off the roster
- OutJ. Oosterwolde · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutM. Yandas · Off the roster
Liverpool
- OutC. Bradley · Knee Injury
- OutF. Chiesa · Off the roster
- OutH. Ekitike · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutW. Endo · Off the roster
- OutJ. Frimpong · Muscle Injury
- OutG. Leoni · Knee Injury
- OutA. Nallo · Leg Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.30 – 1.64
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 55% · X2 70%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 56%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 34%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 19% – 27%Fenerbahçe–Liverpool
- Half-time result
- X · 40%1 25% · 2 35%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 27%1/1 17% · X/2 15%
- Expected corners
- 10.94.8 – 6.1 · Over 9.5: 64%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.4 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 65%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 1-29%
- 0-18%
- 2-17%
- 0-27%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Liverpool
- Power ratings: Fenerbahçe +1.57 goals per game (48th of 430 in Europe), Liverpool +2.38 (9th).
- Fenerbahçe's attack (2.41 goals per game) meets Liverpool's defence (0.69 conceded per game).
- Liverpool's attack (3.07) meets Fenerbahçe's defence (0.84).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 21% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.30 – 1.64 goals: Fenerbahçe 30%, draw 25%, Liverpool 45%.
Liverpool’s momentum meets a must-respond moment
Fenerbahçe’s recent results have been mixed: they have scored six goals and conceded 11 across their last five matches. Liverpool, by contrast, have won all three of their Champions League fixtures so far, scoring 12 goals. That contrast sets up the central question in Istanbul: can Liverpool keep their winning run going, or can Fenerbahçe turn home advantage into a much-needed result?
A sharp contrast in the league phase
Liverpool sit third in the 36-team league phase with nine points from three matches and a goal difference of plus five. Fenerbahçe are 31st, with two points from three games and a goal difference of minus six. The standings underline the task facing the hosts, but their Champions League home record gives them something to build on: across five home matches in this competition, they have won twice and drawn three times without defeat.
Liverpool’s three wins in the competition have come with a potent attack, though they have also conceded seven goals. Fenerbahçe have scored seven and conceded four across their five home matches in the Champions League, suggesting they can make the occasion competitive even as Liverpool bring the stronger current momentum.
No recent head-to-head record
There is no recent head-to-head record to frame this meeting, leaving the teams’ present form and their respective Champions League performances as the clearest guide.
Absences on both sides
Fenerbahçe are without N. Ake and J. Oosterwolde through injury, while M. Asensio is also sidelined. A. Diouf, A. Fall and M. Yandas are off the roster.
Liverpool’s unavailable players include C. Bradley, H. Ekitike, J. Frimpong, G. Leoni and A. Nallo, all listed with injuries. F. Chiesa and W. Endo are off the roster.
Liverpool’s attack in focus
Liverpool’s 12 goals in three Champions League matches make their forward threat the headline, even with seven conceded at the other end. Fenerbahçe’s record of seven goals in five home games in this competition is more modest, but their unbeaten home run there gives them a platform to challenge.
Our prediction
Liverpool’s winning start and greater scoring output make them the more convincing side, although Fenerbahçe’s unbeaten home record in this competition points to a difficult test. PreviaXI’s model leans towards an away victory, with both teams capable of finding the net.
Fenerbahçe 1-2 Liverpool

