League Cup · Round of 16 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Newcastle's away run meets Everton's recent dominance: what their meetings suggest
Newcastle travel to Goodison Park for a League Cup Round of 16 tie with Everton — and recent encounters between the sides have favoured the visitors from Merseyside. Past results point to goals for Everton and tight margins ahead.
📍 Hill Dickinson Stadium
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Match report
Everton beat Newcastle 3-1 to advance in the League Cup Round of 16. James Garner opened the scoring in the 34th minute, assisted by Hayden Hackney, who then made it 2-0 in the 45th minute with Thierno Barry providing the assist. Barry added Everton’s third in the 69th minute, set up by Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Newcastle pulled one back in the 88th minute through Dan Burn, assisted by Joe Willock. There were no red cards.
Newcastle had more of the ball, with 56% possession, and led the shot count 28-11 and shots on target 9-5. Everton’s three goals came despite Newcastle’s higher xG, 2.17 to 1.88. Thierno Barry was the top-rated player, with a rating of 9.0. The result matched the model’s predicted Everton win, though its predicted score was 2-1; its pre-match probabilities were 38% for an Everton win, 27% for a draw and 35% for a Newcastle win.
Goals
- 34'James Garner · Hayden Hackney · Everton
- 45'Hayden Hackney · Thierno Barry · Everton
- 69'Thierno Barry · Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton
- 88'Dan Burn · Joe Willock · Newcastle
Cards
- 60'Hayden Hackney · Everton
- 74'Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall · Everton
- 81'Fabian Schär · Newcastle
- 81'Vitaliy Mykolenko · Everton
- 89'James Tarkowski · Everton
- 89'Joelinton · Newcastle
- 89'Dan Burn · Newcastle
- 89'Jordan Pickford · Everton
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: T. Barry (Everton) 9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Everton · 4-2-3-1
- 1J. PickfordG
- 34M. RöhlD
- 6J. TarkowskiD
- 15J. O'BrienD
- 16V. MykolenkoD
- 30H. HackneyM
- 37J. GarnerM
- 20T. DiblingM
- 8K. Dewsbury-HallM
- 19Tyrique GeorgeM
- 11T. BarryF
Coach: D. Moyes
Newcastle · 4-2-3-1
- 21L. HorníčekG
- 37A. DedićD
- 5F. SchärD
- 33D. BurnD
- 3L. HallD
- 41J. RamseyM
- 6Nico GonzálezM
- 23J. MurphyM
- 28J. WillockM
- 11H. BarnesM
- 10W. OsulaF
Coach: M. Jaissle
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Everton | 2.5 | 0.0 |
| Newcastle | 2.0 | 1.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026Newcastle1-3Everton
- 2026Newcastle2-3Everton
- 2025Everton1-4Newcastle
- 2025Newcastle0-1Everton
- 2024Everton0-0Newcastle
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.39 – 1.35
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 65% · X2 62%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 76% · Over 3.5: 29%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 25%Everton–Newcastle
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 30% · 2 28%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 22%2/2 21% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.85.4 – 5.4 · Over 9.5: 62%
- Expected cards
- 4.02.1 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 57%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 2-18%
- 1-08%
- 1-28%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Newcastle’s situation heading into Merseyside
Newcastle arrive in Liverpool sitting eighth in the Premier League with 11 points from eight matches and a mixed domestic form of WLLWL. On paper their early season shows inconsistency, but they have scored regularly away from home this campaign and will be looking to progress in the League Cup.
What’s at stake in the Round of 16
This is a straight knockout tie in the League Cup. Everton, 11th in the Premier League with 10 points from eight, also see the competition as an opportunity to build momentum — their league form reads LLDWD. Progressing to the quarter-finals would be a timely boost for either club amid uneven starts to the league campaign.
Everton and Newcastle’s current form
Both teams won their two most recent matches in the sample provided: Everton’s last two outings show five goals scored and two clean sheets, averaging 2.5 goals per match across those games and yet conceding none. Newcastle’s last two show four goals scored and two conceded, averaging two goals per match. The comparison shows Everton with a stronger defensive snapshot recently, while Newcastle have been slightly more productive in open phases.
What the recent meetings tell us
The five most recent matches between these sides heavily favour Everton. Since October 2024 the Merseyside club have won four of the last five encounters (1-4 loss in 2025/11 is the exception), including Premier League wins of 3-2 in February 2026 and 1-0 in May 2025. Everton have tended to win by narrow margins but have also produced a 4-1 victory at home in late 2025. Overall head-to-head figures in the supplied comparison show Everton with a clear edge, and recent matches suggest they have had Newcastle’s number in competitive fixtures.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model identifies a close game that leans Everton’s way, reflecting Everton’s recent defensive solidity and the pattern of narrow wins in recent head-to-heads. Expect a tight first half with chances opening up as the match progresses; Everton’s capacity to edge close matches and Newcastle’s goal threat should produce a decisive late goal or two.
Everton 2-1 Newcastle
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