League Cup · Round of 16 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Villa's recent run: unbeaten in three and heading to the Vitality
Aston Villa have avoided defeat in their last three meetings with Bournemouth; the pair meet in the League Cup Round of 16 at the Vitality Stadium where PreviaXI's model expects a tight game.
📍 Vitality Stadium
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Match report
Bournemouth beat Aston Villa 3-0 in the League Cup Round of 16. Goals came in the 7th minute from Amine Adli (assist Julio Soler), in the 51st by Lewis Cook (assist Ben Gannon-Doak) and in the 69th by Álvaro Rodríguez (assist Tyler Adams). There were no red cards.
The numbers show Bournemouth with 49% possession to Villa’s 51%, 7 shots on target to 5 and an xG of 2.75 to 1.67; Bournemouth also had 6 corners to 2. L. Cook was the top-rated player on 8.1. Before kick-off PreviaXI’s model had predicted a 2-1 home win with 48% home, 25% draw and 27% away probabilities.
Goals
- 7'Amine Adli · Julio Soler · Bournemouth
- 51'Lewis Cook · Ben Gannon-Doak · Bournemouth
- 69'Álvaro Rodríguez · Tyler Adams · Bournemouth
Cards
- 12'Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa
- 16'Juanlu Sánchez · Bournemouth
- 25'Ben Gannon-Doak · Bournemouth
- 33'Brian Madjo · Aston Villa
- 54'João Gomes · Aston Villa
- 67'Lewis Cook · Bournemouth
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: L. Cook (Bournemouth) 8.1
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Bournemouth · 4-2-3-1
- 20M. Di GregorioG
- 24Juanlu SánchezD
- 18B. DiakitéD
- 14António SilvaD
- 6J. SolerD
- 4L. CookM
- 10R. ChristieM
- 11B. DoakM
- 21A. AdliM
- 16M. TavernierM
- 30Á. RodríguezF
Coach: M. Rose
Aston Villa · 4-2-3-1
- 40M. BizotG
- 26L. BogardeD
- 4T. Harwood-BellisD
- 5T. MingsD
- 22I. MaatsenD
- 35João GomesM
- 27L. GoretzkaM
- 19I. MbayeM
- 10E. BuendíaM
- 53George HemmingsM
- 39Brian MadjoF
Coach: Unai Emery
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Bournemouth | 4.0 | 0.0 |
| Aston Villa | 3.0 | 1.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026Bournemouth1-1Aston Villa
- 2025Aston Villa4-0Bournemouth
- 2025Bournemouth0-1Aston Villa
- 2024Aston Villa1-1Bournemouth
- 2024Aston Villa3-1Bournemouth
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.73 – 1.25
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 73% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 57%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 35%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 29% – 18%Bournemouth–Aston Villa
- Half-time result
- X · 39%1 37% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 30%X/1 16% · 2/2 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.85.3 – 4.5 · Over 9.5: 50%
- Expected cards
- 4.42.5 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 63%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 2-110%
- 1-08%
- 2-08%
- 1-27%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
What this tie means
The League Cup Round of 16 comes to the Vitality Stadium with Bournemouth hosting Aston Villa. Bournemouth arrive fresh from strong European form listings, while Villa sit ninth in the Premier League after eight league matches. Progress to the quarter-finals is the immediate prize in a one-off knockout clash.
Early-season rhythm
Both sides began their domestic campaigns with wins in the most recent fixtures recorded here. Bournemouth’s single listed home fixture produced a 4-0 result and a clean sheet, while Villa’s away match produced a 3-1 scoreline. Bournemouth show a potent attacking start at home; Villa have also scored on the road and arrive with positive early-season momentum.
Recent meetings favour Villa
Across the five most recent meetings between the two clubs there are two Villa wins (4-0 at Villa, 1-0 away) and two draws (1-1 twice), with the most recent three fixtures unbeaten for Aston Villa (win, win, draw). That run gives Villa a psychological edge despite this being at Bournemouth’s ground, and the head-to-head breakdown in recent matches leans towards Villa’s resilience in these encounters.
Match outlook
PreviaXI’s model rates this as a tight, competitive cup tie with the home side marginally favoured by expected goals and home advantage. Bournemouth’s home scoring form and Villa’s recent unbeaten sequence in the fixture suggest chances at both ends. The projection is for a narrow, attacking game rather than a low-key stalemate.
Our prediction
This looks like a close cup tie that Bournemouth will edge at the Vitality thanks to their home momentum and attacking output. Expect chances for both teams, but Bournemouth to find the decisive goal late.
Bournemouth 2-1 Aston Villa
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