League Cup · Round of 16 
Our pick1–0Missed
League Cup tie framed by league positions and Palace's recent dominance over Fulham
Fulham sit below midtable in the Premier League while Crystal Palace arrive on the back of mixed results — but Palace have not lost to Fulham in their last five meetings. That sequence is the central storyline ahead of this Round of 16 tie at Craven Cottage.
📍 Craven Cottage
Preview written:
Match report
Fulham 0-1 Crystal Palace. The only goal came in the 37th minute when Eddie Nketiah scored for Crystal Palace, assisted by Oscar Mingueza. There were no red cards.
The stats underline Crystal Palace's efficiency: Fulham had 74% possession and 14 total shots to Palace's 4, while expected goals were 1.58 for Fulham and 0.58 for Palace; shots on target were 4 and 3 respectively and corners were 9-0. Crystal Palace’s top-rated player was D. Henderson (7.6). PreviaXI had predicted 1-0 before kick-off, giving Fulham a 39% chance to win, a 28% chance of a draw and a 33% chance for an away win, matching the actual 0-1 outcome.
Goals
- 37'Eddie Nketiah · Oscar Mingueza · Crystal Palace
Cards
- 19'Sander Berge · Fulham
- 50'Jefferson Lerma · Crystal Palace
- 63'Evann Guessand · Crystal Palace
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: D. Henderson (Crystal Palace) 7.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Fulham · 4-2-3-1
- 23B. LecomteG
- 2K. TeteD
- 5J. AndersenD
- 3C. BasseyD
- 33A. RobinsonD
- 16S. BergeM
- 15H. LarssonM
- 14Oscar BobbM
- 8César PalaciosM
- 17A. IwobiM
- 9Rodrigo MunizF
Coach: Álvaro Arbeloa
Crystal Palace · 3-4-2-1
- 1D. HendersonG
- 26C. RichardsD
- 33B. ChilwellD
- 21H. AhanorD
- 30Óscar MinguezaM
- 19W. HughesM
- 28C. DoucouréM
- 8J. LermaM
- 29E. GuessandM
- 24D. OsorioM
- 9E. NketiahF
Coach: P. Sage
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Fulham | 3.0 | 1.0 |
| Crystal Palace | 3.0 | 0.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026Fulham2-3Crystal Palace
- 2026Fulham1-2Crystal Palace
- 2026Crystal Palace1-1Fulham
- 2025Fulham1-2Crystal Palace
- 2025Fulham0-3Crystal Palace
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.36 – 1.24
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 67% · X2 61%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 29% – 26%Fulham–Crystal Palace
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 30% · 2 27%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%2/2 19% · X/X 17%
- Expected corners
- 9.85.8 – 4.0 · Over 9.5: 50%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.9 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 47%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-09%
- 0-19%
- 2-19%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
League picture sets the scene
Fulham enter this League Cup Round of 16 clash as a Premier League side currently 15th in their domestic table, while Crystal Palace appear in the dataset under “Europa League” entries. The fixture at Craven Cottage therefore pits a top-flight Fulham against a Palace side coming off different commitments. League positions and recent form give context to what is otherwise a one-off cup tie.
Recent form suggests confidence for both
Fulham have started their season strongly in the short term, winning their last two fixtures overall and scoring freely at home this campaign (three goals at Craven Cottage in two home outings). Palace have a more limited sample in this dataset but arrive unbeaten in their last recorded match and have shown an ability to score — three goals in their latest outing.
Palace’s run against Fulham
This tie carries a clear historical edge for Crystal Palace. In the five most recent meetings listed, Palace have avoided defeat: wins at Fulham on 2026-09-05 (3-2) and 2026-08-07 (2-1, friendly), a 1-1 draw on 2026-01-01 at Selhurst Park, and earlier league and cup victories including a 2-1 and a 3-0. That sequence of four wins and a draw gives Palace an unmistakable psychological advantage heading to Craven Cottage.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours a tight, low-scoring game with Fulham marginally stronger at home and expected to create the clearer chances. Crystal Palace’s recent dominance in head-to-heads suggests they will be hard to break down, but Fulham’s home scoring and slight statistical edge push this towards a narrow home win. Expect a compact contest decided by a single goal from Fulham.
Fulham 1-0 Crystal Palace
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