League Cup · Round of 16 
Our pick0–1Missed
Recent meetings favour Brentford ahead of League Cup last-16 tie
Brentford have the edge in recent head-to-heads and arrive with stronger attacking form, a combination that points to a tight away win at the Stadium of Light in this Round of 16 League Cup tie.
📍 Stadium of Light
Preview written:
Match report
Sunderland won 3-2 in a game that produced five goals. Chemsdine Talbi opened the scoring in the 26th minute. Timur Tutierov made it 2-0 in the 29th minute, assisted by Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi. Malick Fofana extended Sunderland's lead to 3-0 in the 39th minute, again assisted by Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi. Callum Wilson pulled one back for Brentford in the 42nd minute, assisted by Vitaly Janelt. Igor Thiago scored for Brentford in the 90+4th minute with an assist from Mathias Jensen. There were no red cards.
The stats underline Brentford's control: 67% possession, 16 total shots and 7 shots on target, while Sunderland had 33% possession, 7 shots and 4 on target; xG was 2.41 for Sunderland and 2.77 for Brentford. Sunderland's top-rated player was J. Bi (8.3). The PreviaXI model had predicted a 0-1 score with home win 30%, draw 27% and away win 43%.
Goals
- 26'Chemsdine Talbi · Sunderland
- 29'Timur Tutierov · Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi · Sunderland
- 39'Malick Fofana · Djiamgone Jocelin Ta Bi · Sunderland
- 42'Callum Wilson · Vitaly Janelt · Brentford
- 90+4'Igor Thiago · Mathias Jensen · Brentford
Cards
- 74'Kevin Schade · Brentford
- 83'Vitaly Janelt · Brentford
- 85'Jannik Schuster · Brentford
- 89'Chris Rigg · Sunderland
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Bi (Sunderland) 8.3
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Sunderland · 4-2-3-1
- 31M. EllborgG
- 8A. BrowneD
- 4K. DansoD
- 15O. AldereteD
- 6D. MethalieD
- 7C. TalbiM
- 29Jules AhokaM
- 37J. BiM
- 19H. DiarraM
- 39M. FofanaM
- 57Timur TuterovF
Coach: R. Le Bris
Brentford · 4-2-3-1
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 33M. KayodeD
- 44Jannik SchusterD
- 22N. CollinsD
- 25E. DioufD
- 18M. SangaréM
- 27V. JaneltM
- 13C. WilsonM
- 24M. DamsgaardM
- 19J. AnthonyM
- 9ThiagoF
Coach: Keith Andrews
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sunderland | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Brentford | 4.0 | 1.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026Brentford1-1Sunderland
- 2026Brentford3-0Sunderland
- 2025Sunderland2-1Brentford
- 2018Sunderland0-2Brentford
- 2017Brentford3-3Sunderland
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.17 – 1.47
- Double chance
- 12 · 73%1X 57% · X2 70%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 49%Over 1.5: 75% · Over 3.5: 27%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Clean sheet
- 23% – 31%Sunderland–Brentford
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 25% · 2 33%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 26%1/1 17% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.15.1 – 4.0 · Over 9.5: 43%
- Expected cards
- 4.22.0 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-110%
- 1-29%
- 1-08%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A narrow stat that matters
Brentford have taken three of the last five meetings between these clubs and scored more often in those encounters — a recent pattern that looms large ahead of this Round of 16 League Cup tie at the Stadium of Light.
What’s at stake in Sunderland
This cup tie offers Sunderland a chance to progress deep into a domestic knockout competition while playing at home. Sunderland have started their season with a win in one home fixture so far and kept a clean sheet in that game, but their broader competitive calendar shows Europa League group-stage involvement.
Brentford’s attacking momentum
Brentford arrive having scored eight goals across their two away fixtures this season and won both, an early-season run that underlines their scoring threat. Their Premier League form also shows several positive results, and recent league matches against Sunderland include a 3-0 league victory in January and a 1-1 draw in September.
What recent meetings tell us
The five most recent meetings (dating back to 2017) show Brentford finishing ahead on three occasions: 3-0 at home in January, a 1-1 draw in September and earlier seasons with wins and draws. Sunderland’s wins in that stretch have been fewer, including a 2-1 home victory in August 2025. The trend is clear: Brentford have generally been the more prolific side when these teams meet.
Squad availability and context
There are no listed absences for either side. Sunderland balance a congested schedule with European group matches while Brentford juggle Premier League duties, which could influence team selection and freshness for a single-leg cup tie.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model projects a tight, low-scoring contest that leans to an away victory given Brentford’s recent head-to-head dominance and superior attacking returns this season. Expect a single decisive moment rather than an open goal-fest, with Sunderland defending resolutely at home but Brentford finding room to nick it late.
Sunderland 0-1 Brentford
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