La Liga · Matchday 11 
Our pick1–0Missed
Valencia seek a lift in the standings at Elche
Valencia travel to Elche looking to improve their position after taking six points from 10 league matches. Elche have four more points and the home advantage, but have yet to win at home this season.
📍 Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero
Preview written: · Updated after team news:
All Matchday 11 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Elche lost 1–0 to Valencia after a match in which the only goal came in the 69th minute. Umar Sadiq scored for Valencia, assisted by Arnaut Danjuma, to settle the contest. There were no red cards.
Elche had more possession, 69% to 31%, and led the shot count 16–5, but both sides recorded three shots on target. Elche’s expected goals were 1.33, compared with Valencia’s 0.96. Valencia’s U. Sadiq was the top-rated player, with a rating of 7.4. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 1–0 prediction for Elche, which gave the home side a 40% win chance, a draw 28%, and Valencia a 32% win chance.
Goals
- 69'Umar Sadiq · Arnaut Danjuma · Valencia
Cards
- 36'Germán Valera · Elche
- 42'Víctor Chust · Elche
- 62'Facundo Buonanotte · Elche
- 73'Javi Guerra · Valencia
- 90+1'Stole Dimitrievski · Valencia
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: U. Sadiq (Valencia) 7.4
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Elche · 4-3-3
- 1M. DituroG
- 2Buba SangaréD
- 23Víctor ChustD
- 5F. RedondoD
- 3R. RevivoD
- 47J. MorcilloM
- 18T. LemarM
- 12Gonzalo VillarM
- 21L. CepedaF
- 14Fer NiñoF
- 11Germán ValeraF
Coach: M. Anselmi
Valencia · 4-4-2
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 22Arnau MartínezD
- 18PepeluD
- 5César TárregaD
- 14José GayàD
- 24Pablo MaffeoM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 11Luis RiojaM
- 8Javi GuerraF
- 7A. DanjumaF
Coach: J. Aguirre
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Elche | 1.4 | 1.7 |
| Valencia | 0.7 | 1.7 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Elche | 10 | -3 | 10 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | -10 | 6 |
Last meetings
- 2026Elche1-0Valencia
- 2026Valencia1-1Elche
- 2023Elche0-2Valencia
- 2022Valencia2-2Elche
- 2022Elche0-1Valencia
Absences
Elche
- OutM. Aguado · Ankle Injury
Valencia
- OutS. Canos · Knee Injury
- OutJ. Copete · Coach's decision
- OutH. Elliott · Red Card
- OutD. Lopez · Knee Injury
- OutD. Otorbi · Hamstring Injury
- OutK. van Oevelen · Knee Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.37 – 1.21
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 68% · X2 60%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 30% – 25%Elche–Valencia
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 31% · 2 26%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 23%2/2 19% · X/X 17%
- Expected corners
- 8.54.6 – 3.9 · Over 9.5: 35%
- Expected cards
- 4.72.4 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 68%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-09%
- 2-19%
- 0-08%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Valencia’s climb starts here
Valencia arrive in Elche 19th in La Liga with six points from 10 matches, and will be looking to climb the standings. Their hosts are 16th on 10 points, giving this meeting at Estadio Manuel Martínez Valero importance for both sides as the league campaign continues.
Elche’s home record offers Valencia a possible route into the game: they have drawn once and lost three times in four home matches, without a win. Valencia, meanwhile, have taken four points from their four away fixtures, with one win, one draw and two defeats.
Contrasting recent returns
Elche have scored eight goals and conceded four across their last five matches. Valencia have scored six and let in seven over the same span, while their league records after 10 games stand at two wins, four draws and four losses for Elche, against one win, three draws and six defeats for Valencia.
The hosts have scored 14 league goals overall, twice Valencia’s total of seven. But Elche have conceded 17, the same number as Valencia, so the home side’s greater scoring output has not brought a clear defensive edge.
A close recent rivalry
The latest meeting, in April 2026, ended with Elche beating Valencia 1-0. The previous four matchups in the supplied five-game series produced two Valencia wins and two draws, including a 1-1 result in January 2026.
Absences on both sides
Elche will be without M. Aguado because of an ankle injury. Valencia’s absentees are S. Canos and D. Lopez with knee injuries, D. Otorbi with a hamstring injury, H. Elliott through suspension after a red card, and J. Copete and K. van Oevelen by the coach’s decision.
Elche’s home test
Elche’s scoring record is the stronger of the two, but their four home league games have yielded only four goals and 11 conceded. Valencia have scored just four times in four away matches, so turning their recent scoring into a sustained threat will be key to their bid to take points.
Our prediction
Elche’s home advantage and higher goal output give them a narrow edge, although their winless home record points to a tight contest. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, with the most likely outcome a low-scoring home victory.
Elche 1-0 Valencia
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