2–1 Full time Sunday 1 November

Our pick2–1Exact score

Real Sociedad’s winning run faces a San Mamés test

Real Sociedad have won four straight league matches and sit fifth, seven points ahead of seventh-placed Athletic Club. But the hosts’ home record and the visitors’ recent defensive struggles make this Basque derby finely balanced.

📍 San Mamés Stadium

Preview written: Sat 31 Oct 00:37 · Updated after team news: Sun 1 Nov 08:21

All Matchday 11 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Athletic Club beat Real Sociedad 2-1. Iñaki Williams opened the scoring in the 14th minute, assisted by Nico Williams. Luka Sučić equalised for Real Sociedad in the 30th minute, before Alex Berenguer put Athletic Club back in front with a penalty in first-half stoppage time, at 45+2. There were no red cards.

Real Sociedad had more possession, with 62% to Athletic Club’s 38%, and edged the shot count 14-13. Athletic Club recorded the higher expected-goals figure, 2.97 to 1.42, while Real Sociedad had more shots on target, 5-3. L. Sučić was the top-rated player, with a 7.7 rating. The result matched the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1 score, which gave Athletic Club a 49% chance of winning, a draw 25% and Real Sociedad a 26% chance.

Goals

14'Iñaki Williams · Nico Williams · Athletic Club
30'Luka Sučić · Real Sociedad
45+2'Alex Berenguer (pen.) · Athletic Club

Cards

45+4'Iñaki Williams · Athletic Club
55'Mikel Oyarzabal · Real Sociedad
64'Mamadou Sarr · Real Sociedad
65'Pellegrino Matarazzo · Real Sociedad
74'Jon Aramburu · Real Sociedad
84'Hugo Rincón Lumbreras · Athletic Club

Match stats

Athletic ClubReal Sociedad

38%Possession62%

13Shots14

3Shots on target5

2.97Expected goals (xG)1.42

5Corners8

11Fouls13

0Offsides2

4Saves1

⭐ Top-rated player: L. Sučić (Real Sociedad) 7.7

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Athletic Club · 4-2-3-1

1Unai SimónG
15Hugo RincónD
3Dani VivianD
14Aymeric LaporteD
17YuriD
24Beñat GerenabarrenaM
28Peio CanalesM
7Álex BerenguerM
9I. WilliamsM
10Nico WilliamsM
21Maroan SannadiF

Coach: E. Terzić

Real Sociedad · 4-4-2

1Álex RemiroG
2J. AramburuD
6Jon MartínD
19M. SarrD
17Sergio GómezD
7BarrenetxeaM
18Carlos SolerM
4Jon GorrotxategiM
11Gonçalo GuedesM
10Mikel OyarzabalF
24L. SučićF

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Match facts

Recent form

Athletic ClubDDDLW

Real SociedadLWWWW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Athletic Club	1.3	1.0
Real Sociedad	1.9	1.8

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
5	Real Sociedad	10	+1	19
7	Athletic Club	9	+3	12

Last meetings

2026Real Sociedad0-1Athletic Club
2026Real Sociedad1-0Athletic Club
2026Athletic Club0-1Real Sociedad
2026Athletic Club1-1Real Sociedad
2025Real Sociedad3-2Athletic Club

Absences

Athletic Club

OutU. Egiluz · Knee Injury
OutG. Guruzeta · Knee Injury
OutI. Ruiz de Galarreta · Hamstring Injury
DoubtfulO. Sancet · Muscle Injury

Real Sociedad

OutL. Beitia · Ankle Injury
OutA. Odriozola · Knee Injury
OutA. Zakharyan · Ankle Injury

PreviaXI model

Athletic Club49%Draw25%Real Sociedad26%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 1.72 – 1.18
Double chance: 12 · 75%1X 74% · X2 51%
Over 2.5 goals: 55%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 33%
Both teams score: 58%
Clean sheet: 31% – 18%Athletic Club–Real Sociedad
Half-time result: X · 40%1 37% · 2 23%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 30%X/1 16% · X/X 15%
Expected corners: 10.46.2 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 58%
Expected cards: 4.62.3 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 67%
Most likely scores: 1-112%
2-110%
1-09%
2-08%
1-27%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A seven-point gap in the Basque derby

Real Sociedad travel to San Mamés on a four-match winning streak in La Liga, with 19 points from 10 games and fifth place in the table. Athletic Club are seventh on 12 points, having played one fewer match. The visitors have momentum and a sizeable lead over their local rivals, but extending that run in Bilbao will be a serious test.

Sociedad’s surge meets Athletic’s home form

Real Sociedad’s latest five league matches have brought four wins and one defeat. They have scored 13 goals in that spell, but have also conceded 10, suggesting their attacking form has not always come with control at the back. Overall, they have won six of 10 league games.

Athletic’s recent sequence is less convincing: one win, three draws and a defeat in their last five. Yet they have conceded only four goals across those matches, and their home record offers encouragement, with two wins and two draws from five league games at San Mamés. They have scored nine times at home.

Recent meetings have been tight

The last five meetings include two wins for Real Sociedad, two for Athletic and a draw. The most recent was a 1-0 Athletic victory in a friendly in October. Their latest league meeting ended 1-1, while the two Copa del Rey fixtures earlier in 2026 produced one win apiece for Real Sociedad and Athletic.

Injuries leave questions for both sides

Athletic will be without U. Egiluz, G. Guruzeta and I. Ruiz de Galarreta, while O. Sancet is questionable. Real Sociedad are missing L. Beitia, A. Odriozola and A. Zakharyan.

The attack against the home defence

Real Sociedad’s 13 goals in five matches make their forward momentum clear, but their 10 concessions in the same run offer Athletic an opening. The hosts’ record of four goals conceded across their last five suggests they may be better placed to keep the contest contained, especially at home.

Our prediction

Real Sociedad’s winning run gives them confidence, but Athletic’s home results and more measured recent defending point towards the hosts edging a close derby. Athletic Club 2-1 Real Sociedad

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