CONCACAF Nations League · League B - 1 
After four defeats, Dominica face Cayman Islands
Dominica have lost four CONCACAF Nations League matches in a row, but Cayman Islands arrive on the same run and have yet to score in the competition. The model gives Dominica a cautious edge, with other outcomes still plausible.
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This League B fixture is played in Leonora, Guyana. Home and away statistics below follow the designated teams in the match records; they are not proof of a physical home advantage at a centralized venue.
Dominica need a response
Dominica’s fourth straight defeat has left them without a win in five CONCACAF Nations League matches, making this a chance to halt the slide. Cayman Islands are also winless in five and have lost four in a row, so both sides need a result, though the competition information does not establish what it would mean for qualification.
Across their five matches in this competition, Dominica have scored four goals and conceded 19. Cayman Islands have scored none and conceded 12 in the same number of matches. The model leans towards Dominica, but its leading outcome is below half, leaving a draw or an away win plausible.
Dominica’s scoring against Cayman Islands’ away defence
In two home matches in this competition, Dominica have scored once and conceded seven. Cayman Islands have lost both of their away matches, conceding three goals and scoring none. That comparison gives the hosts a potential opening, but the sample is small; Dominica’s home record also shows how difficult it has been for them to contain opponents.
A pattern to watch is whether Dominica can turn their home scoring into an early breakthrough: they have scored in only one of those two matches, while Cayman Islands have yet to score away in the competition.
A goalless meeting in September
The teams drew 0-0 when they met in the CONCACAF Nations League in September. That recent result offers a counterpoint to the model’s preference for Dominica and suggests another close contest is possible.
Our prediction
Dominica have a cautious edge: the model favours a home win, and Cayman Islands’ failure to score in five competition matches strengthens that case. But Dominica’s run of defeats and the visitors’ two away matches are both reasons to leave room for a draw or an away result.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Match facts
Recent form
Dominica
- L A Puerto Rico 2-4
- L A Guyana 1-8
- L H Guyana 1-5
- L H Puerto Rico 0-2
- D A Cayman Islands 0-0
Cayman Islands
- L H Guyana 0-6
- L A Puerto Rico 0-1
- L H Puerto Rico 0-3
- L A Guyana 0-2
- D H Dominica 0-0
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Dominica | 0.8 | 3.8 |
| Cayman Islands | 0.0 | 2.4 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Cayman Islands 0-0 Dominica
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.28 – 0.86
- Double chance
- Home win or draw74%Either team wins 73% · Draw or away win 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 62%Over 1.5: 62% · Over 3.5: 17%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 42% – 28%Dominica–Cayman Islands
- Half-time result
- X · 47%1 33% · 2 20%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 28%X/1 18% · X/X 18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Dominica
- Expected goals favour Dominica: 1.28 – 0.86.
- The model gives Dominica a 42% chance of a clean sheet.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 53%, led by a draw at 27%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.
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