Canada look to build on Guatemala win in Nations League quarter-final

A quarter-final with a fresh result

Canada lead Guatemala 3-2 on aggregate before the quarter-final second leg at BMO Field. The first leg was played on 13 November locally, 14 November in Riyadh. The prize is a place in the March 2027 Nations League Finals and the 2027 Gold Cup. The aggregate winner advances. Away goals break an aggregate tie; if the teams are still level, extra time and, if needed, penalties follow.

Canada’s scoring against Guatemala’s record

Canada scored three goals in their one CONCACAF Nations League match, while Guatemala scored 11 in five matches in this competition, conceding six. Those samples are not directly comparable: Canada’s figure comes from one match, and Guatemala’s five-match total includes both home and away games. Guatemala’s away record in the competition is a draw and a defeat in two matches, with two goals scored and three conceded.

The latest meeting offers a concrete pattern to watch: both sides scored, and Canada edged a match that produced five goals. PreviaXI’s model favours an away win, although a Canada win or a draw remain plausible alternatives.

Canada’s recent head-to-head edge

Canada are unbeaten in the last four meetings, with two wins and two draws; Guatemala have no wins in that sequence. Three of those four games had two goals or fewer, but the most recent meeting departed from that pattern with five goals.

Our prediction

The model favours Guatemala, but Canada’s first-leg win is a clear counterpoint. The one-match and five-match competition samples do not establish a reliable scoring advantage for Guatemala; a Canada win or a draw remain plausible.