After five defeats, Bermuda face Guadeloupe
Bermuda arrive on a five-match losing run in the CONCACAF Nations League, having conceded 15 goals across those games. Guadeloupe’s home record in the competition is modest, but the model gives the hosts the edge.
📍 Stade Roger Zami
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AI-assisted writing with automated checks against the supplied match data. How we prepare and review previews
This League B fixture is played in Le Gosier, Guadeloupe. Home and away statistics below follow the designated teams in the match records; they are not proof of a physical home advantage at a centralized venue.
Bermuda’s losing run raises the stakes
Bermuda have lost all five of their CONCACAF Nations League matches, conceding 15 goals and keeping no clean sheets. That run puts the focus firmly on their response against Guadeloupe, though the competition information does not establish what a result would mean for qualification.
Guadeloupe have two wins, a draw and two defeats in their five matches in this competition, and their most recent game was a victory. Their home record is less convincing: a draw and a defeat in two CONCACAF Nations League home matches, with two goals scored and three conceded.
Guadeloupe’s attack against Bermuda’s defence
The clearest comparison is Guadeloupe’s scoring against Bermuda’s defending in this competition: Guadeloupe scored seven goals in five matches, while Bermuda conceded 15 in five. Bermuda have also conceded nine goals in their two away matches, although Guadeloupe have scored only twice in their two home games in the tournament.
That home sample offers a reason for caution rather than assuming the visitors will be overwhelmed. A pattern to watch is whether Bermuda can avoid the defensive problems that have followed them on the road, while Guadeloupe try to turn their home opportunities into goals.
A recent meeting favoured Guadeloupe
Guadeloupe won the most recent meeting, 2-1 away to Bermuda in the CONCACAF Nations League in September 2026. It was the only listed head-to-head, so it offers a recent reference point rather than a broader pattern.
Our prediction
Guadeloupe have the edge: PreviaXI’s model favours a home win, with the hosts’ scoring record in the competition set against Bermuda’s repeated defensive troubles. Guadeloupe’s modest return across two home matches leaves room for a draw or an away response, however.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Match facts
Recent form
Guadeloupe
- W A Barbados 3-0
- L H St. Lucia 0-1
- L A St. Lucia 0-3
- D H Barbados 2-2
- W A Bermuda 2-1
Bermuda
- L H St. Lucia 1-2
- L H Barbados 1-2
- L A Barbados 1-4
- L A St. Lucia 2-5
- L H Guadeloupe 1-2
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Guadeloupe | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Bermuda | 1.2 | 3.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Bermuda 1-2 Guadeloupe
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.13 – 1.35
- Double chance
- Either team wins81%Home win or draw 75% · Draw or away win 44%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 65%Over 1.5: 86% · Over 3.5: 46%
- Both teams score
- 59%
- Clean sheet
- 26% – 12%Guadeloupe–Bermuda
- Half-time result
- 1 · 43%X 35% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 36%X/1 16% · 2/2 14%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Guadeloupe
- Expected goals favour Guadeloupe: 2.13 – 1.35.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 44%, led by Bermuda win at 25%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.

