Derby and Bolton renew a tight recent rivalry as both seek a reset

Derby need a response

Derby’s recent form gives this meeting a sharp edge: they are without a win in nine league matches and have lost their last game. They have scored four and conceded 11 across their last five, leaving them 23rd in the Championship with seven points after 14 matches. Bolton are 16th, ten points and seven places above them, though they also come into the game after a defeat.

Bolton’s away record offers hope

Derby have managed only two draws and four defeats in six home league matches, scoring four goals and keeping no clean sheets. Their overall league record stands at one win, four draws and eight defeats.

Bolton’s recent run is also uneven: they are without a win in three and have lost their last two. Their last five league matches brought a win, a draw and three defeats. But away from home, they have taken two wins and two draws from six matches, scoring nine goals and keeping two clean sheets. Their broader record is four wins, two draws and seven defeats.

Recent meetings lean Derby’s way

The last five meetings give Derby a three-to-one advantage, with one draw. The latest was a 1-0 Derby win in League One in March 2024, while two of the five encounters produced two goals or fewer.

That history offers Derby a reason for belief, but the narrow scoreline in the most recent clash also suggests this fixture can be closely contested. The sides have met at different points in their recent league journeys; this time, Derby need the result more urgently, while Bolton can draw confidence from their away performances.

Absences could shape the contest

Derby are without P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, C. Taylor and L. Travis. J. Ward is questionable.

Bolton are missing E. Erhahon, R. Hardie, J. McAtee, J. Nelson and E. Toal, while G. Bazunu is questionable.

A chance for Derby to turn the tide

Derby’s home struggles and long winless sequence make a response essential, but their recent head-to-head edge provides a positive reference point. Bolton’s away record is more convincing than Derby’s home form, although both sides’ latest results and defensive records point to an open contest.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Derby, with the home side’s stronger attacking outlook tipping a close match their way. Bolton’s away results suggest they can trouble Derby, but the hosts may end their barren run by a narrow margin.

Derby 2-1 Bolton