Championship · Matchday 15 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Birmingham and Swansea level on points in Championship top-five clash
Birmingham sit third and Swansea fifth, but both have 26 points after 14 matches. Birmingham’s strong recent form and unbeaten home record meet a Swansea side seeking a response after defeat.
📍 St. Andrew's Stadium
Preview written:
All Matchday 15 matches Full head-to-head
Match report
Final result: Birmingham 2-1 Swansea.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 20–8; Shots on target: 8–3; Corners: 8–5; Expected goals: 3.12–1.1.
Goals
- 29' Jay Stansfield · Max Bird · Birmingham
- 65' Christoph·Klarer (o.g.) · Swansea
- 87' Jay Stansfield · Birmingham
Cards
- 24' Chris Davies · Birmingham
- 26' Marko Stamenić · Swansea
- 42' Ross Stewart · Swansea
- 49' Jay Fulton · Swansea
- 54' Jay Stansfield · Birmingham
- 55' Ethan Laird · Birmingham
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: J. Stansfield (Birmingham) 8.7
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Birmingham · 4-2-3-1
- 21R. AllsopG
- 2E. LairdD
- 5P. NeumannD
- 4C. KlarerD
- 20A. CochraneD
- 24T. IwataM
- 14J. SolisM
- 16P. RobertsM
- 28J. StansfieldM
- 17L. MillarM
- 18M. BirdF
Coach: C. Davies
Swansea · 4-3-3
- 22L. VigourouxG
- 26F. LissahD
- 5B. CabangoD
- 3J. SeeltD
- 14J. TymonD
- 17Gonçalo FrancoM
- 4J. FultonM
- 6M. StamenićM
- 49M. YeoF
- 31R. StewartF
- 10Eom Ji-SungF
Coach: Vítor Matos
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Birmingham | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Swansea | 1.5 | 1.1 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Birmingham | 14 | +13 | 26 |
| 5 | Swansea | 14 | +5 | 26 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Swansea 0-1 Birmingham
- 2026 Swansea 1-1 Birmingham
- 2025 Birmingham 1-0 Swansea
- 2024 Birmingham 2-2 Swansea
- 2023 Swansea 1-1 Birmingham
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.50 – 1.01
- Double chance
- 1X · 75%12 73% · X2 52%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 46%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 36% – 22%Birmingham–Swansea
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 35% · 2 22%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 29%X/1 17% · X/X 17%
- Expected corners
- 9.36.1 – 3.2 · Over 9.5: 46%
- Expected cards
- 3.71.8 – 1.9 · Over 3.5: 52%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A top-five race on a knife-edge
Third-placed Birmingham and fifth-placed Swansea meet level on 26 points after 14 Championship matches, with goal difference putting Birmingham two places higher. The result could reshape the tight race for promotion places, though neither side can move clear of the other on points alone.
Birmingham’s stronger goal difference, +13 to Swansea’s +5, reflects a season in which they have scored 26 and conceded 13. Swansea have scored 21 and let in 16. At St. Andrew’s, Birmingham are unbeaten in seven league matches, with three wins and four draws.
Birmingham arrive in form
Birmingham have won their last two league matches and have four victories in their last five, alongside one defeat. They scored 13 goals and conceded just two across that five-match run, giving them a clear platform to attack this fixture.
Swansea’s recent record is less settled: two wins and three defeats in their last five, with six goals scored and nine conceded. Their most recent league match ended in defeat. Away from home, they have four wins and three defeats in seven matches, but have conceded 13 goals on the road.
Birmingham hold the recent edge
Birmingham are unbeaten across the last five meetings, winning twice while the other three ended in draws. The most recent encounter came in the League Cup in August, when Birmingham won 1-0 away at Swansea. Four of those five meetings featured two goals or fewer, suggesting the recent rivalry has often been tight.
Players to watch
Birmingham’s team-wide attacking form stands out: 13 goals in their last five league matches, backed by a defence that conceded only twice over the same span. Swansea will need to find a way to unsettle that balance, particularly after shipping nine goals in their last five.
Our prediction
Birmingham’s home record and sharper recent results give them the edge, while their five-match defensive record points to a difficult afternoon for Swansea’s attack. PreviaXI’s model also favours the home side, with a narrow victory the most likely outcome.
Birmingham 1-0 Swansea
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