Championship · Matchday 15 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Burnley seek a climb as Cardiff offer a tough away test
Cardiff’s 2-1 League Cup win was the most recent meeting, but the hosts now have a five-point advantage in the Championship. Burnley arrive seeking a change of direction after five league matches without a win.
📍 Cardiff City Stadium
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All Matchday 15 matches Full head-to-head
Match report
Final result: Cardiff 5-4 Burnley.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 25–15; Shots on target: 11–8; Corners: 5–6; Expected goals: 4.69–2.31.
Goals
- 15' Andréas Hountondji · Lucas Pires Silva · Burnley
- 25' Marcus Edwards · Jaydon Banel · Burnley
- 40' Ollie·Tanner · Rubin Colwill · Cardiff
- 55' Largie Ramazani · Burnley
- 62' Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson (o.g.) · Burnley
- 65' Yousef Salech · C. Ashford · Cardiff
- 75' Jack Moylan (pen.) · Cardiff
- 82' Yousef Salech · Rubin Colwill · Cardiff
- 90+4' Alexander Sean Pablo Robertson · Christopher Willock · Cardiff
Cards
- 50' Krystian Bielik · Cardiff
- 79' Joel Bagan · Cardiff
- 79' Largie Ramazani · Burnley
- 90+9' Kyle Walker · Burnley
- 90+11' Josh Laurent · Burnley
- 90+11' Rubin Colwill · Cardiff
- 90+13' Yousef Salech · Cardiff
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Y. Salech (Cardiff) 8.8
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Cardiff · 4-2-3-1
- 1N. TrottG
- 38P. NgD
- 2W. FishD
- 5K. BielikD
- 3J. BaganD
- 18A. RobertsonM
- 45Cian AshfordM
- 11O. TannerM
- 10R. ColwillM
- 16C. WillockM
- 8J. MoylanF
Coach: B. Barry-Murphy
Burnley · 4-2-3-1
- 37G. CoudertG
- 2K. WalkerD
- 18H. EkdalD
- 44IgorD
- 23Lucas PiresD
- 19L. RamazaniM
- 5R. HatateM
- 10M. EdwardsM
- 29J. LaurentM
- 34J. BanelM
- 17A. HountondjiF
Coach: F. Celestini
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cardiff | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Burnley | 1.3 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 | Cardiff | 14 | -1 | 15 |
| 22 | Burnley | 14 | -8 | 10 |
Last meetings
- 2025 Burnley 1-2 Cardiff
- 2025 Cardiff 1-2 Burnley
- 2024 Burnley 5-0 Cardiff
- 2023 Burnley 3-0 Cardiff
- 2022 Cardiff 1-1 Burnley
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.16 – 1.41
- Double chance
- 12 · 78%1X 76% · X2 46%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 69%Over 1.5: 88% · Over 3.5: 48%
- Both teams score
- 67%
- Clean sheet
- 24% – 12%Cardiff–Burnley
- Half-time result
- 1 · 42%X 35% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 35%X/1 16% · 2/2 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.36.5 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 58%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.5 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 53%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Cardiff’s lead and Burnley’s task
The most recent meeting brought a Cardiff 2-1 win away to Burnley in the League Cup in September 2025. Now the sides meet in the Championship, where Cardiff sit 18th with 15 points after 14 matches and Burnley are 22nd with 10. Cardiff are four places and five points above their visitors, giving Burnley a clear opportunity to close the gap and climb the standings.
Recent momentum, different problems
Cardiff have taken two wins and two draws from their last five league matches, alongside one defeat. They have scored 11 goals in that spell, but conceded nine, and their most recent league match ended in a draw.
Burnley are seeking their first win in five league games, having drawn three and lost two. They have scored five and conceded nine across those matches; their latest league outing also finished level. Their away record adds to the challenge: one win, two draws and four defeats in seven league trips.
A recent edge for Cardiff
Burnley have won three of the last five meetings, with Cardiff claiming one victory and the other ending in a draw. Yet Cardiff’s 2-1 success in the latest encounter offers a recent reminder that they can trouble Burnley. Only one of those five meetings produced two goals or fewer.
Cardiff’s home platform
Cardiff have avoided defeat in all seven home league matches, winning three and drawing four. They have scored 16 goals and conceded nine at home, a record that gives them a solid base against a Burnley side that has conceded 16 times in seven away games.
Burnley have scored 10 goals on the road, so Cardiff will still need to manage the visitors’ threat. The hosts have kept one home clean sheet, while Burnley have also recorded one away from home.
Our prediction
Cardiff’s strong home record and more productive recent run point towards the hosts, although Burnley’s five-match winless spell includes three draws and suggests they can remain competitive. PreviaXI’s model also favours Cardiff, with the home side’s greater attacking threat tilting the forecast towards a narrow win.
Cardiff 2-1 Burnley
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