Serie A · Matchday 32 
Our pick2–1Missed
Gremio's climb out of the drop zone starts in Curitiba
Gremio sit 18th in Serie A and need points badly, while Coritiba hold 12th place. Both sides come into Monday's match winless in their last five, and a long injury list shapes the选择 on both benches.
📍 Estádio Couto Pereira
Preview written:
All Matchday 32 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Coritiba 0-1 Gremio. The only goal came in the 90+2 minute: Martin Braithwaite scored for Gremio with an assist from Francis Amuzu, sealing the late winner.
The numbers show Gremio controlled more possession (58% to 42%), had more total shots (17 to 12) and a higher xG (1.87 to 1.21); shots on target were 6 to 4. The top-rated player was M. Braithwaite (7.7). Before kickoff the PreviaXI model had predicted a 2-1 win for the home side, giving Coritiba a 47% chance, a 26% chance of a draw and a 27% chance for an away win.
Goals
- 90+2'Martin Braithwaite · Francis Amuzu · Gremio
Cards
- 40'Tinga · Coritiba
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: M. Braithwaite (Gremio) 7.7
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Coritiba · 4-2-3-1
- 1Pedro LuccasG
- 2TingaD
- 23Tiago CóserD
- 55JacyD
- 26Bruno MeloD
- 5N. FonsecaM
- 19S. GómezM
- 32Pedro RochaM
- 10JosuéM
- 7J. LavegaM
- 18Paulo RobertoF
Coach: Fernando Seabra
Gremio · 3-4-3
- 1WevertonG
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 82WallaceD
- 27Diego CaitoM
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonM
- 7C. PavónF
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 9F. AmuzuF
Coach: Renato Gaúcho
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Gremio | 1.1 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Coritiba | 31 | -11 | 39 |
| 18 | Gremio | 31 | -10 | 31 |
Last meetings
- 2026Gremio1-0Coritiba
- 2023Coritiba1-2Gremio
- 2023Gremio5-1Coritiba
- 2021Coritiba1-1Gremio
- 2020Gremio2-1Coritiba
Absences
Coritiba
- OutLucas Ronier · Knee Injury
- OutLucas Taverna · Inactive
- OutRichard · Inactive
- OutThiago Santos · Yellow Cards
Gremio
- OutJ. Cabral · Inactive
- OutJ. Nardoni · Inactive
- OutWalter Kannemann · Red Card
- DoubtfulDanilo Barbosa · Injury
- DoubtfulMatheus Nascimento · Inactive
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.61 – 1.15
- Double chance
- 12 · 74%1X 73% · X2 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Clean sheet
- 32% – 20%Coritiba–Gremio
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 36% · 2 23%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 29%X/1 16% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.0 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 48%
- Expected cards
- 5.22.3 – 2.9 · Over 3.5: 75%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 2-19%
- 1-09%
- 2-08%
- 0-07%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Gremio are 18th of 20 in Serie A, with 31 points from 31 matches and a goal difference of -10. Only two sides sit below them. Coritiba, in 12th with 39 points, are comfortably clear of the bottom three, which makes this a chance for Gremio to put daylight between themselves and the trapdoor.
Neither side has found its rhythm
Gremio’s last five league games have brought three draws and two defeats, with no wins. Coritiba have been just as stuck, collecting two draws and three defeats in their recent run. Gremio have scored six and conceded nine in that spell. Coritiba have managed four goals but have let in 14, the leakiest defence in the recent sample.
A pattern in their meetings
Gremio have dominated recent encounters, winning four of the last five meetings. The most recent was a 1-0 home win in April, and Gremio also won 5-1 in 2023 and 2-1 in 2020. Coritiba’s only points in that run came from a 1-1 draw in 2021.
Team news
Coritiba will be without Lucas Ronier, who is out with a knee injury, along with Lucas Taverna and Richard. Thiago Santos misses out after accumulating yellow cards.
Gremio have their own problems. Walter Kannemann is suspended after a red card, while J. Cabral and J. Nardoni are not in the squad. Danilo Barbosa and Matheus Nascimento are doubtful.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Coritiba, who have the stronger home record and the better chance of finding the net in a tight game. Gremio’s away form is poor, and their defence has been stretched without Kannemann. Expect a scrappy contest in which Coritiba edge it, though Gremio have the head-to-head record to keep this close.
Coritiba 2-1 Gremio
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