2–1 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick2–1Exact score

Bologna’s unbeaten Monza record offers a platform for another win

Bologna have avoided defeat in all five meetings listed with Monza, winning three and drawing two. They return to the Dall’Ara with a stronger recent run, while Monza have conceded 22 goals in nine league matches.

📍 Stadio Renato Dall'Ara

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:05 · Updated after team news: Sat 31 Oct 14:01

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Bologna came from behind to beat Monza 2-1. Gustavo Varela put Monza ahead from the penalty spot in the sixth minute. Juan Miranda assisted Tommaso Pobega’s equaliser for Bologna in the 33rd minute, and Federico Bernardeschi converted a penalty in the 59th to put the hosts in front. No red cards were recorded.

Bologna had 60% possession and edged Monza in shots on target, 5-4, while the visitors had six total shots to Bologna’s 10. The hosts also held the advantage in expected goals, 2.1 to 1.84, and corners, 5-2. Juan Miranda was Bologna’s top-rated player, with a rating of 7.7. The 2-1 result matched the pre-match model’s predicted score; it had assigned Bologna a 45% win chance, a draw 23%, and a Monza win 32%.

Goals

6'Gustavo Varela (pen.) · Monza
33'Tommaso Pobega · Juan Miranda · Bologna
59'Federico Bernardeschi (pen.) · Bologna

Cards

12'Ricardo Mangas · Monza
17'Jens Odgaard · Bologna
23'Tommaso Pobega · Bologna
58'Lorenzo Lucchesi · Monza
74'Nadir Zortea · Bologna
76'Idrissa Toure · Monza
90'Mikel Jesús Amondarain · Bologna

Match stats

BolognaMonza

60%Possession40%

10Shots6

5Shots on target4

2.10Expected goals (xG)1.84

5Corners2

13Fouls19

4Offsides1

3Saves3

⭐ Top-rated player: Juan Miranda (Bologna) 7.7

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Bologna · 3-4-2-1

1Ł. SkorupskiG
41M. VitíkD
16N. CasaleD
3A. TheateD
20N. ZorteaM
19L. FergusonM
4T. PobegaM
33Juan MirandaM
10F. BernardeschiM
28N. CambiaghiM
21J. OdgaardF

Coach: Raffaele Palladino

Monza · 3-4-2-1

1N. TörnqvistG
60E. KouadioD
2S. GoglichidzeD
3L. LucchesiD
19S. BirindelliM
8M. OndoaM
21L. ColomboM
7Ricardo MangasM
47Dany MotaM
22E. ZeballosM
9Gustavo VarelaF

Coach: I. Juric

Match facts

Recent form

BolognaDWLWW

MonzaWLWLL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Bologna	1.3	1.3
Monza	1.8	2.4

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
11	Bologna	9	0	11
16	Monza	9	-6	7

Last meetings

2025Bologna3-1Monza
2024Bologna4-0Monza
2024Monza1-2Bologna
2024Bologna0-0Monza
2023Monza0-0Bologna

Absences

Bologna

OutL. De Silvestri · Muscle Injury
OutJ. Enem · Achilles Tendon Injury
OutE. Holm · Thigh Injury
OutR. Piccoli · Hamstring Injury

Monza

OutM. Folorunsho · Coach's decision
OutY. Maye · Muscle Injury
OutM. Pessina · Knee Injury
OutJ. Ziolkowski · Foot Injury

PreviaXI model

Bologna45%Draw23%Monza32%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 1.65 – 1.37
Double chance: 12 · 77%1X 68% · X2 55%
Over 2.5 goals: 58%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 36%
Both teams score: 60%
Clean sheet: 25% – 19%Bologna–Monza
Half-time result: X · 39%1 34% · 2 27%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 27%2/2 19% · X/1 15%
Expected corners: 8.54.7 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 36%
Expected cards: 3.61.6 – 2.0 · Over 3.5: 50%
Most likely scores: 1-111%
2-19%
1-08%
1-28%
0-17%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Bologna have history on their side

Bologna are unbeaten in their last five meetings with Monza, winning three and drawing two. That run includes a 3-1 Serie A victory at the Dall’Ara in January and a 4-0 Coppa Italia win there in December 2024, giving the hosts a clear recent record to build on.

The sides meet in Serie A’s 10th round, with Bologna 11th on 11 points after nine matches and Monza 16th on seven. Bologna’s goal difference is level; Monza’s stands at minus six. A win would strengthen Bologna’s position in the middle of the table, while Monza have an opportunity to close the gap.

Bologna arrive in better form

Bologna have won three and drawn two of their last five league matches, scoring 10 goals in that spell. Their season has been less secure at home: they have yet to win in four Dall’Ara league fixtures, drawing twice and losing twice, and have conceded seven goals there.

Monza’s recent form is less convincing, with two wins and three defeats in their last five, despite also scoring 10 times. Their defensive record is a concern: they have conceded 22 goals in nine league games, including 14 in five away matches. Monza have yet to win on the road this season.

Five meetings without a defeat

The recent head-to-head record gives Bologna more than a psychological foothold. After three straight draws or narrow results in 2023 and early 2024, Bologna beat Monza 2-1 away in September 2024, then followed up with a cup win and the 3-1 league victory. Monza have not beaten Bologna in any of the five listed meetings.

Absences on both sides

Bologna will be without L. De Silvestri, J. Enem, E. Holm and R. Piccoli. Monza are missing M. Folorunsho, Y. Maye, M. Pessina and J. Ziolkowski.

Goals could decide it

Bologna have scored 10 goals across their last five matches, while Monza have also found the net 10 times in that span. But the visitors’ 22 goals conceded this season point to a vulnerability Bologna can target, even as the hosts look to improve on a home record that includes no wins so far.

Our prediction

Bologna’s unbeaten run against Monza and the visitors’ struggles away from home make the hosts the more convincing choice. Monza have shown they can score, but Bologna’s stronger defensive numbers and home advantage point towards a narrow win.

Bologna 2-1 Monza

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