3–1 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick1–2Missed

Inter’s winning run faces a San Siro test against AC Milan

Serie A leaders Inter arrive with eight wins from nine and a five-match unbeaten run. Fifth-placed AC Milan will hope the derby can halt their neighbours’ momentum.

📍 San Siro/Giuseppe Meazza

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:08

All Matchday 10 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

AC Milan beat Inter 3-1 after taking an early lead. Christian Pulisic opened the scoring in the 4th minute, assisted by Diego Moreira, and Adrien Rabiot made it 2-0 six minutes later, again with Moreira providing the assist. Alessandro Bastoni pulled one back for Inter in the 22nd minute. Moreira then scored AC Milan’s third in the 43rd minute. There were no red cards.

Inter had more of the ball, with 57% possession to AC Milan’s 43%, and also led the shots count 19-7. The visitors had eight shots on target to Milan’s four, while their xG was 1.84 compared with 0.74. Diego Moreira was the top-rated player, with a 9.0 rating. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 1-2 prediction, which gave Inter a 49% win chance, AC Milan 29%, and a draw 22%.

Goals

4'Christian Pulisic · Diego Moreira · AC Milan
10'Adrien Rabiot · Diego Moreira · AC Milan
22'Alessandro Bastoni · Inter
43'Diego Moreira · AC Milan

Cards

49'Koni De Winter · AC Milan
52'Diego Moreira · AC Milan
90'Carlos Augusto · Inter

Match stats

AC MilanInter

43%Possession57%

7Shots19

4Shots on target8

0.74Expected goals (xG)1.84

3Corners11

8Fouls14

1Offsides4

7Saves1

⭐ Top-rated player: Diego Moreira (AC Milan) 9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

AC Milan · 4-4-1-1

16M. MaignanG
34Mario GilaD
5K. De WinterD
31S. PavlovićD
13S. BocoumD
22Diego MoreiraM
80Y. MusahM
14L. ModrićM
11C. PulišićM
12A. RabiotM
9Gonçalo RamosF

Coach: Ruben Amorim

Inter · 3-5-1-1

1Josep MartínezG
31Y. BisseckD
25M. AkanjiD
95A. BastoniD
99D. SpenceM
23N. BarellaM
20H. ÇalhanoğluM
8P. SučićM
30Carlos AugustoM
17A. DioufM
9M. ThuramF

Coach: C. Chivu

Match facts

Recent form

AC MilanWDWWL

InterDWWWW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
AC Milan	2.0	1.2
Inter	2.8	1.1

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Inter	9	+15	25
5	AC Milan	9	+7	18

Last meetings

2026AC Milan1-1Inter
2026AC Milan1-0Inter
2025Inter0-1AC Milan
2025Inter0-3AC Milan
2025AC Milan1-1Inter

Absences

AC Milan

OutS. Chukwueze · Hip Injury
OutM. Gabbia · Thigh Injury
OutR. Loftus-Cheek · Thigh Injury
OutA. Saelemaekers · Ankle Injury
DoubtfulM. Gila · Ankle Injury
DoubtfulD. Moreira · Thigh Injury
DoubtfulA. Rabiot · Calf Injury
DoubtfulF. Tomori · Muscle Injury

Inter

OutC. Jones · Thigh Injury
OutLuis Henrique · Thigh Injury
OutL. Martinez · Thigh Injury
OutB. Pavard · Thigh Injury
DoubtfulJ. Stones · Muscle Injury

PreviaXI model

AC Milan29%Draw22%Inter49%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 1-2
Expected goals (model): 1.32 – 1.79
Double chance: 12 · 78%1X 51% · X2 71%
Over 2.5 goals: 60%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 38%
Both teams score: 61%
Clean sheet: 17% – 27%AC Milan–Inter
Half-time result: X · 38%1 25% · 2 37%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 30%1/1 17% · X/2 15%
Expected corners: 7.83.0 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 27%
Expected cards: 3.41.6 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 46%
Most likely scores: 1-110%
1-29%
0-18%
0-27%
2-17%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A derby with the leaders in view

Inter sit top of Serie A with 25 points from nine matches, seven clear of fifth-placed AC Milan, who have 18. The gap gives the visitors a chance to underline their early-season authority, while Milan can close in on the summit with a derby victory at San Siro.

Inter’s run is the central question: they have won eight of their nine league games and remain unbeaten. Milan have also made a strong start, with five wins, three draws and one defeat, but face the division’s most in-form side.

Inter’s momentum, Milan’s scoring threat

Inter’s league sequence reads four wins, a draw and then four more victories. They have scored 25 goals and conceded 10, while their latest five-match stretch has brought 12 goals for and only four against.

Milan have scored 18 and conceded 11 in nine games. Their recent five have produced 11 goals, although they have allowed seven. At home, they have won three of four league fixtures, scoring 10 times. Inter have won three of four away matches, with eight goals scored and three conceded.

Recent derbies have favoured Milan

The last five meetings include two draws and three Milan wins across Serie A, the Coppa Italia and a friendly. Milan won the most recent league encounter 1-0 in March, while the August friendly finished 1-1. Inter therefore arrive in better league form, but recent head-to-head results offer Milan encouragement.

Absences on both sides

Milan will be without S. Chukwueze, M. Gabbia, R. Loftus-Cheek and A. Saelemaekers. M. Gila, D. Moreira, A. Rabiot and F. Tomori are listed as questionable.

Inter are missing C. Jones, Luis Henrique, L. Martinez and B. Pavard, while J. Stones is questionable. The visitors’ injury list includes several players, but their results have remained strong through the opening nine rounds.

Inter’s attack faces a Milan test

Inter’s 25 goals make them the league’s most prolific side in this matchup, and their recent defensive record is also the stronger one. Milan’s home scoring—10 goals in four games—means the hosts have the threat to make the derby uncomfortable, particularly if they can turn their strong recent head-to-head record into early pressure.

Our prediction

Inter’s unbeaten run, superior scoring numbers and consistency away from home give them the edge, even with several players absent. PreviaXI’s model also favours the visitors, while Milan’s home record and recent derby results point to a close contest.
AC Milan 1-2 Inter

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