Primeira Liga · Matchday 11 
Our pick Home win Missed
Casa Pia seek a climb as Alverca look to halt their slide
Casa Pia travel to Alverca looking to move up the Primeira Liga standings, four points behind their hosts. Both sides are coming off defeats, while Alverca won the most recent meeting 3-1.
📍 Complexo Desportivo FC Alverca
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Alverca 1-1 Casa Pia.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 15–11; Shots on target: 5–4; Corners: 9–2; Expected goals: 0.76–0.97.
Goals
- 36' Selvi Clua · Henrique Araújo · Casa Pia
- 66' Ian Luccas · Francisco Chiquinho · Alverca
Cards
- 22' Ian Luccas · Alverca
- 25' Pedro Rosas · Casa Pia
- 40' Davy Gui · Alverca
- 48' Francisco Chiquinho · Alverca
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Ian Luccas (Alverca) 7.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Alverca · 3-4-3
- 31Matheus MendesG
- 4Y. BojangD
- 21Sergi GómezD
- 12I. JamesD
- 20Diogo Filipe Spencer MarquesM
- 25Ian LuccasM
- 6D. GuiM
- 55Francisco ChissumbaM
- 10ChiquinhoF
- 19D. CamaraF
- 22FigueiredoF
Coach: Sérgio Ferreira
Casa Pia · 4-2-3-1
- 1P. SequeiraG
- 18GeraldesD
- 3KalyD
- 43David SousaD
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 16SilviM
- 24S. PérezM
- 29J. LivolantM
- 70João Pedro Seno Luís RêgoM
- 77B. PauwelsM
- 9Henrique AraújoF
Coach: Filipe Coelho
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Alverca | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Casa Pia | 0.5 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Alverca | 10 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Casa Pia | 10 | -14 | 7 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Alverca 3-1 Casa Pia
- 2025 Casa Pia 0-2 Alverca
- 2025 Alverca 2-3 Casa Pia
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.59 – 0.87
- Double chance
- 1X · 79%12 76% · X2 45%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 23%
- Both teams score
- 46%
- Clean sheet
- 42% – 20%Alverca–Casa Pia
- Half-time result
- X · 43%1 39% · 2 18%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 34%X/1 19% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.96.2 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 52%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.1 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 66%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A chance to close the gap
Casa Pia head to Alverca on Saturday with a clear target: climb the Primeira Liga standings. They sit 17th on seven points after 10 matches, while Alverca are 10th on 11 points, leaving Casa Pia seven places and four points behind.
Alverca will be keen to steady their own campaign after back-to-back defeats. A win would keep them ahead of a visiting side seeking a response and a route up the table.
Recent results point both ways
Alverca’s last five league matches have brought three wins and two defeats, with eight goals scored and four conceded. Their current two-match losing run follows that productive spell, and their home record stands at one win, two draws and two defeats from five games.
Casa Pia have two wins and three defeats across their last five, scoring five and conceding eight. Their overall record after 10 league matches is two wins, one draw and seven defeats, with five goals scored and 19 conceded. Away from home, however, they have two wins, a draw and two defeats in five matches, scoring and conceding four goals.
Both teams lost their most recent league match, so each arrives needing a response.
Alverca won the latest meeting
The sides’ most recent encounter came in April 2026, when Alverca beat Casa Pia 3-1 in the Primeira Liga. Across the last three meetings in the competitions listed, Alverca have two wins and Casa Pia one, with no draws.
What could decide it
Alverca have scored eight goals and conceded four across their last five league matches, giving them the stronger recent balance. Casa Pia’s away results offer encouragement, but their 19 goals conceded in 10 league games underline the defensive challenge they face.
The home side will look to turn that recent scoring form into a result, while Casa Pia need to make their away resilience count if they are to take points and begin closing the standings gap.
Our prediction
Alverca’s stronger recent goal difference and home advantage give them the edge, while Casa Pia’s away record suggests the visitors can keep the contest close. PreviaXI’s model favours Alverca, with a narrow home win the likeliest outcome.
Alverca 1-0 Casa Pia
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