Can Malaga trouble Alaves at Mendizorroza?

Eighteen goals conceded in nine league games, and not a single win. Malaga arrive in Vitoria-Gasteiz on Friday carrying the weight of a long, grinding start to the season, while Alaves come in as the comfortable favourites.

A comfortable cushion for Alaves

Alaves are seventh in La Liga with 11 points from nine matches and a positive goal difference of +3. Malaga sit 20th with four points, all of them from draws, and a goal difference of -12. The gap between the two sides is wide, and it shows in the numbers that matter most.

Home strength versus a struggling away record

Alaves have won three of their five home games and have scored 10 goals at Mendizorroza, an average of two per match. Their scoring has a clear pattern: five of their 13 goals this season have arrived between the 76th and 90th minutes, so they have a habit of finding a winner late on.

Malaga have had little to offer on the road. They have failed to win any of their four away games and have scored just once in that time. Their last five matches have produced five goals scored and 11 conceded.

A history that favours Alaves

Alaves have won four of the last five meetings. Malaga’s only success in that run was a 1-0 win in December 2022, in the Segunda Division. Alaves’ most recent victory, a 2-1 win in May 2023, came in the same division.

Absences on both sides

Alaves will be without F. Garces, who is suspended, and M. Rodriguez, who is out with an ankle injury. Malaga are missing J. Lobete and A. Ochoa, both sidelined by knee injuries, while J. Cruz (muscle) and D. Murillo (knee) are doubtful.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Alaves, and that reading makes sense on the football. Alaves have the better home record and the more reliable attack, while Malaga have struggled to score away from home. The game is likely to be tight, with Malaga’s best chance of a result coming from keeping the scoreline low for as long as possible.

Alaves 1-0 Malaga