Liga MX · Apertura - 13 
Toluca vs Club Tijuana preview: can the underdogs trouble the favourites?
Toluca, second in Liga MX, host a Club Tijuana side still searching for consistency in the lower half of the table. Can the visitors make the Nemesio Diez a difficult night for the hosts?
📍 Estadio Nemesio Diez
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| Scored | Conceded | |
|---|---|---|
| Toluca | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Club Tijuana | 1.4 | 1.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Toluca | 12 | +10 | 21 |
| 10 | Club Tijuana | 11 | +1 | 16 |
Last meetings
- 2026Toluca1-0Club Tijuana
- 2025Club Tijuana0-0Toluca
- 2025Club Tijuana2-4Toluca
- 2024Toluca4-0Club Tijuana
- 2024Toluca2-0Club Tijuana
PreviaXI model
- Most likely score
- 2-0
- Expected goals (xG)
- 2.11 – 0.98
- Over 2.5 goals
- 60%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Expected corners
- 6.9 – 3.2Total10.1
- Expected cards
- 2.3 – 2.5Total4.8
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only.
Toluca’s 1-0 win over Club Tijuana in February was the latest chapter in a rivalry that has largely belonged to the hosts. Now the sides meet again, and the question is whether the visitors can disturb a team sitting well clear of them in the table.
Toluca above the chasing pack
Toluca are second in the 18-team Liga MX Apertura table with 21 points from 12 matches and a goal difference of +10. Club Tijuana are 10th on 16 points from 11 games, and their goal difference of +1 reflects a side that has struggled to turn close games into convincing results. For Toluca, the aim is to stay in touch with the top. For Tijuana, a result here would be a real statement.
Toluca wobbling, Tijuana stuck in neutral
Neither side arrives in rich form. Toluca have collected one win, two draws and two defeats in their last five league matches, scoring nine and conceding ten in that run. Still, they have won six of their 12 league games this season, with three wins from six at home. Tijuana have not won in their last five either, taking three draws and two defeats, and have scored only five goals in that spell. Their away form is the bigger concern: one defeat and three draws in four trips, with no victories yet.
Recent history favours the hosts
Toluca have won four of the last five meetings, the exception being a goalless draw in October 2025. The hosts won 4-0 and 2-0 at home in 2024, and Toluca also came out 4-2 winners at Tijuana in January 2025. Tijuana have managed just two goals across those five games, both of them in that January defeat.
Our prediction
Toluca should edge this. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, pointing to a side that creates more chances and has the stronger home record. Tijuana have shown they can frustrate, as the October stalemate proved, and they will need to keep the game tight and make Toluca work for every opening. But the balance of goals and home form points to a narrow home win rather than an upset.
Toluca 2-0 Club Tijuana