4–1 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick2–1Correct result

Southampton and QPR seek the edge in a tight Championship race

Both sides have 20 points after 12 matches, with Southampton just two places above QPR. Home strength and a recent run of head-to-head wins give the hosts a narrow advantage.

📍 St. Mary's Stadium

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:06

All Matchday 13 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Southampton beat QPR 4-1. Kuryu Matsuki opened the scoring in the 11th minute, and Cameron Bragg doubled the lead in the 55th, assisted by Ryan Manning. Manning also assisted Keven Schlotterbeck’s goal in the 66th minute. QPR replied two minutes later through Richard Kone, with Karamoko Dembélé providing the assist. Welington added Southampton’s fourth in the 90th minute, in stoppage time. There were no red cards.

Southampton had 54% possession and led QPR 9-2 in shots on target, while the expected-goals figures were 1.25 to 0.78. Cameron Bragg was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.2. The 4-1 result was a wider Southampton win than the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1, though its 52% win estimate had favoured the home side.

Goals

11'Kuryu Matsuki · Southampton
55'Cameron Bragg · Ryan Manning · Southampton
66'Keven Schlotterbeck · Ryan Manning · Southampton
68'Richard Kone · Karamoko Dembélé · QPR
90+5'Welington · Southampton

Cards

72'Jonathan Varane · QPR
83'Kealey Adamson · QPR
86'Jimmy Dunne · QPR

Match stats

SouthamptonQPR

54%Possession46%

19Shots12

9Shots on target2

1.25Expected goals (xG)0.78

9Corners4

7Fouls15

5Offsides1

2Saves5

⭐ Top-rated player: Cameron Bragg (Southampton) 8.2

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Southampton · 4-2-3-1

1Daniel PeretzG
14J. BreeD
5J. StephensD
13K. SchlotterbeckD
3R. ManningD
30J. Ward-ProwseM
26Cameron BraggM
27K. MatsukiM
10F. AzazM
7Léo ScienzaM
11L. DobbinF

Coach: Tonda Eckert

QPR · 4-4-2

1P. CharlesG
2K. AdamsonD
3J. DunneD
5R. EdwardsD
12B. KemperD
17K. PokuM
40J. VaraneM
18G. KamaraM
20H. ValeM
22R. KoneF
11P. SmythF

Coach: Julien Stéphan

Match facts

Recent form

SouthamptonLWWDW

QPRDDWLW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Southampton	2.0	1.0
QPR	1.7	1.0

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
6	Southampton	12	+12	20
8	QPR	12	+8	20

Last meetings

2026Southampton5-0QPR
2025QPR1-2Southampton
2023QPR0-1Southampton
2023Southampton2-1QPR
2015QPR0-1Southampton

Absences

Southampton

DoubtfulF. Downes · Ankle Injury
DoubtfulC. Larin · Hamstring Injury

QPR

OutR. Burrell · Inactive
OutI. Chair · Muscle Injury
OutT. Lamptey · Inactive
OutN. Madsen · Injury
OutA. S. Mbengue · Knee Injury

PreviaXI model

Southampton52%Draw24%QPR24%

Model confidence: Medium

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 1.81 – 1.14
Double chance: 1X · 76%12 76% · X2 48%
Over 2.5 goals: 56%Over 1.5: 80% · Over 3.5: 34%
Both teams score: 57%
Clean sheet: 32% – 16%Southampton–QPR
Half-time result: 1 · 40%X 39% · 2 21%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 33%X/1 17% · X/X 14%
Expected corners: 10.15.7 – 4.4 · Over 9.5: 54%
Expected cards: 4.31.7 – 2.6 · Over 3.5: 60%
Most likely scores: 1-111%
2-110%
1-09%
2-09%
1-26%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

A fine margin at St. Mary’s

Southampton and QPR are level on 20 points after 12 Championship matches, making Saturday’s meeting a chance to create separation in a tightly packed race. Southampton sit sixth and QPR eighth, with only goal difference dividing them; both will be looking for a decisive edge rather than settling for the status quo.

The home side’s record at St. Mary’s offers a clear route to that edge. Southampton have won five of six home league games and scored 16 goals there, while conceding only four. QPR have been competitive overall, but their away record is less commanding: two wins, three draws and one defeat in six matches on the road.

Contrasting recent rhythms

Southampton’s last five matches have brought six goals scored and four conceded. Their latest five-game sequence in the standings reads W-D-W-W-L, while QPR’s is W-L-W-D-D. QPR arrive with the sharper attack over the same five-match span, having scored 12 times, but they have also let in seven.

Across the season, Southampton have scored 24 goals to QPR’s 20, and both have conceded 12. The hosts’ home scoring rate stands out, while QPR’s recent goal output suggests they can threaten if they find space. Southampton’s defensive record at home, however, has been particularly firm.

Recent meetings favour Southampton

Southampton have won all five of the listed recent meetings, including a 5-0 home victory in February 2026 and a 2-1 win away at QPR in November 2025. That run gives the hosts a psychological boost, though the teams’ current proximity in the table makes this a fresh test rather than a foregone conclusion.

Absences to monitor

Southampton list F. Downes as questionable with an ankle injury and C. Larin as questionable with a hamstring injury. QPR have five players listed as missing the fixture: R. Burrell and T. Lamptey are inactive, while I. Chair, N. Madsen and A. S. Mbengue are absent through injury.

QPR’s goal threat, Southampton’s home edge

QPR’s 12 goals across their last five matches make their attack a threat, but Southampton’s home record is the more consistent foundation. The hosts have scored 16 and conceded just four in six league games at St. Mary’s. If they can keep the match on their terms, their stronger home results and recent dominance in this matchup could prove decisive.

Our prediction

Southampton’s home strength and defensive resilience give them the narrow edge, despite QPR’s recent scoring form. PreviaXI’s model also leans towards a home win, with both sides capable of finding the net.

Southampton 2-1 QPR

⚑ Report a mistake Editorial policy

Championship table All previews that day