Championship · Matchday 13 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Millwall’s unbeaten Derby record offers a platform at The Den
Millwall have avoided defeat in their last five meetings with Derby, winning three. That recent edge meets a stark gap in the Championship table, with Derby struggling near the bottom.
📍 The Den
Preview written:
All Matchday 13 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Millwall beat Derby 4-1 after a commanding start, scoring three times in the opening 17 minutes. Kyrell Lisbie opened the scoring in the third minute, assisted by Lyndon Dykes, then added a second seven minutes later with Caleb Taylor providing the assist. Luke Cundle made it 3-0 in the 17th minute, set up by Camiel Neghli. Jake Cooper extended Millwall’s lead in the 84th minute, assisted by Mihailo·Ivanovic, before Filip Bilbija scored Derby’s goal three minutes later. There were no red cards.
Millwall recorded 56% possession and 22 shots to Derby’s 13, while the xG figures were 4.16 to 1.26. K. Lisbie was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.4. The result was more emphatic than the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction for Millwall, with a 50% home-win probability, 26% draw probability and 24% away-win probability.
Goals
- 3'Kyrell Lisbie · Lyndon Dykes · Millwall
- 10'Kyrell Lisbie · Caleb Taylor · Millwall
- 17'Luke Cundle · Camiel Neghli · Millwall
- 84'Jake Cooper · Mihailo·Ivanovic · Millwall
- 87'Filip Bilbija · Derby
Cards
- 24'Lyndon Dykes · Millwall
- 32'Derek Mazou Sacko · Millwall
- 45+1'Rhian Brewster · Derby
- 71'Carlton Morris · Derby
- 89'Jenson Metcalfe · Millwall
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: K. Lisbie (Millwall) 8.4
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Millwall · 4-2-3-1
- 15M. CrocombeG
- 4T. CramaD
- 6C. TaylorD
- 5J. CooperD
- 3Zak Norton SturgeD
- 14Jenson MetcalfeM
- 49D. Mazou-SackoM
- 10C. NeghliM
- 25L. CundleM
- 22K. LisbieM
- 13L. DykesF
Coach: A. Neil
Derby · 4-2-3-1
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG
- 22M. JohnstonD
- 24R. NyambeD
- 14J. RobinsonD
- 26R. HedgesD
- 4D. OzohM
- 8B. ClarkM
- 10R. BrewsterM
- 11S. SzmodicsM
- 19H. MeisterM
- 9C. MorrisF
Coach: J. Eustace
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Millwall | 1.6 | 1.7 |
| Derby | 0.8 | 1.8 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | -1 | 15 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | -11 | 7 |
Last meetings
- 2026Millwall1-0Derby
- 2025Derby1-1Millwall
- 2025Derby0-1Millwall
- 2024Millwall1-1Derby
- 2022Derby1-2Millwall
Absences
Millwall
- OutJ. Coburn · Muscle Injury
- OutC. De Norre · Muscle Injury
- OutL. Jensen · Muscle Injury
- OutM. Luongo · Knee Injury
- OutF. Marschall · Injury
- OutM. Servais · Inactive
- DoubtfulT. Arconte · Ankle Injury
Derby
- OutP. Agyemang · Achilles Tendon Injury
- OutE. Cashin · Inactive
- OutM. Clarke · Calf Injury
- OutC. Forsyth · Knee Injury
- OutS. Langas · Injury
- OutD. Murkin · Hamstring Injury
- OutD. Sanderson · Red Card
- OutC. Taylor · Injury
- OutL. Travis · Ankle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.62 – 1.05
- Double chance
- 1X · 76%12 74% · X2 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 50%Over 1.5: 75% · Over 3.5: 28%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 35% – 20%Millwall–Derby
- Half-time result
- X · 42%1 37% · 2 21%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 31%X/1 17% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 11.16.4 – 4.7 · Over 9.5: 66%
- Expected cards
- 4.31.6 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 61%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-011%
- 2-110%
- 2-09%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Derby arrive under pressure
Derby travel to The Den on Saturday looking to turn around a difficult Championship campaign. They are 23rd after 12 matches, with seven points and a goal difference of minus 11. Millwall sit 13th on 15 points, giving the home side a chance to strengthen their position while extending a recent hold over their visitors.
The meeting is shaped by that head-to-head record: Millwall have not lost to Derby in their last five league encounters. With Derby still seeking consistency, the London club can draw confidence from both the standings and those recent results.
Millwall have the stronger recent numbers
Millwall have won four of their 12 league matches, while Derby have won just once. Neither side arrives in strong form: Millwall’s last five have brought six goals for and seven against, while Derby scored four and conceded eight in their last five.
The wider season figures underline the contrast. Millwall have scored 19 league goals, compared with Derby’s 10, and have collected 15 points to Derby’s seven. Millwall have also taken two wins from six home matches. Derby are yet to win at home, although their one league victory has come away.
Five meetings without a Derby win
Millwall’s recent record against Derby is the clearest thread running into this fixture. The Lions won 1-0 in March and 1-0 away in February, while the other three meetings ended in draws: 1-1, 1-1 and 2-1 to Millwall in 2022.
That makes three Millwall wins and two draws across the last five. The latest contest at The Den finished 1-0, a reminder that this rivalry has often been decided by narrow margins.
Absences across both squads
Millwall will be without J. Coburn, C. De Norre, L. Jensen, M. Luongo, F. Marschall and M. Servais. T. Arconte is questionable with an ankle injury.
Derby have a longer list of unavailable players: P. Agyemang, E. Cashin, M. Clarke, C. Forsyth, S. Langas, D. Murkin, D. Sanderson, C. Taylor and L. Travis.
Millwall’s home edge
Millwall’s stronger scoring record and recent success in this matchup give them a clear route to controlling the contest. Derby have managed only 10 goals in 12 league games, so breaking down a side that has repeatedly made this fixture difficult will be a significant challenge.
Our prediction
Millwall’s home advantage and unbeaten run against Derby point towards another close result. Derby’s low scoring output and the history of tight meetings make a narrow home win the likeliest outcome.
Millwall 1-0 Derby
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