Sevilla’s home edge meets Alaves’ away struggles

Sevilla’s top-six opportunity

Sixth-placed Sevilla have 17 points after 11 La Liga matches, five places and five points ahead of 11th-placed Alaves. Both have a goal difference of -2, but their contrasting home and away records shape the contest: Sevilla have won three of five home league games, while Alaves are yet to win in five away matches.

Home advantage against a stubborn slump

Sevilla have won five, drawn two and lost four of their 11 league matches. Their latest was a defeat, and they have lost three of their last five, despite scoring eight goals in that spell. They have also conceded 13 across those five matches, highlighting the defensive weakness Alaves could try to exploit.

Alaves’ recent return has been even leaner: two draws and three defeats in their last five, with four goals scored and 11 conceded. They are without a win in seven and also lost their most recent league match. Away from home, they have taken two points from five games, scoring four times and conceding 11.

That contrast gives Sevilla a clear route to control: their home record is stronger, while Alaves have struggled both to score and to keep opponents out on the road.

Recent meetings have been close

The last five meetings across competitions have produced two Alaves wins, one Sevilla win and two draws. Three had two goals or fewer, and the most recent ended 1-1 in La Liga in February 2026. The history points to a potentially tight game, even as Sevilla’s home results offer the more encouraging platform.

Sevilla missing several options

Sevilla will be without M. Bueno, suspended after a red card, and Marcao and Peque through muscle and hamstring injuries respectively. I. Romero (knee) and M. Sierra (shoulder) are questionable. Alaves are missing M. Rodriguez with an ankle injury.

Defensive solidity could decide it

Sevilla’s 17 goals in 11 matches offer a stronger scoring return than Alaves’ 15, but neither side has been especially secure: Sevilla have conceded 19 and Alaves 17. The visitors’ four goals in their last five, and their poor away return, make it difficult to see them consistently troubling Sevilla. The home side’s own recent defensive record, however, means a clean sheet is far from assured.

Our prediction

Sevilla’s home advantage and Alaves’ seven-game winless run tilt the balance towards the hosts, though the visitors’ recent meetings with Sevilla have often been close. PreviaXI’s model favours a narrow home win, with Sevilla’s stronger attacking output providing the difference.

Sevilla 1-0 Alaves