La Liga · Matchday 12 
Our pick Away win Correct result
Valencia seek a climb as Real Madrid arrive at Mestalla
Valencia are 19th after 11 matches and will look to make up ground against third-placed Real Madrid. The visitors come into the La Liga meeting on a four-match winning run.
📍 Estadio de Mestalla
Preview written:
All Matchday 12 matches Full head-to-head
Match report
Final result: Valencia 0-3 Real Madrid.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 4–19; Shots on target: 2–11; Corners: 2–5; Expected goals: 0.24–2.26.
Goals
- 28' Federico Valverde · Real Madrid
- 36' Arda Güler · Real Madrid
- 75' Kylian Mbappé · Arda Güler · Real Madrid
Cards
- 26' Pablo Maffeo · Valencia
- 45' Andriy Lunin · Real Madrid
- 50' Guido Rodríguez · Valencia
- 59' Javier Aguirre Onaindía · Valencia
- 79' José Gayà · Valencia
- 80' Yan Diomande · Real Madrid
- 80' Luis Rioja · Valencia
- 81' José Luis García Vayá · Valencia
- 81' Kylian Mbappé · Real Madrid
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: A. Güler (Real Madrid) 9
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Valencia · 5-3-2
- 1S. DimitrievskiG
- 24Pablo MaffeoD
- 18PepeluD
- 5César TárregaD
- 12J. de HaasD
- 14José GayàD
- 8Javi GuerraM
- 2G. RodríguezM
- 33Aaron MayolM
- 6U. SadiqF
- 7A. DanjumaF
Coach: J. Aguirre
Real Madrid · 4-2-3-1
- 1T. CourtoisG
- 8F. ValverdeD
- 16I. KonatéD
- 4D. HuijsenD
- 17Marc CucurellaD
- 20Bernardo SilvaM
- 14A. TchouaméniM
- 15A. GülerM
- 5J. BellinghamM
- 25Y. DiomandeM
- 10Kylian MbappéF
Coach: José Mourinho
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Valencia | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Real Madrid | 2.5 | 0.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Real Madrid | 11 | +18 | 27 |
| 19 | Valencia | 11 | -9 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid
- 2025 Real Madrid 4-0 Valencia
- 2025 Real Madrid 1-2 Valencia
- 2025 Valencia 1-2 Real Madrid
- 2024 Valencia 2-2 Real Madrid
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.02 – 1.73
- Double chance
- X2 · 78%1X 47% · 12 75%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 53%
- Clean sheet
- 18% – 36%Valencia–Real Madrid
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 20% · 2 39%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 33%X/2 17% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 9.64.2 – 5.4 · Over 9.5: 50%
- Expected cards
- 4.72.2 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 68%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A steep table gap
Valencia go into round 12 in 19th place, with nine points from 11 matches; third-placed Real Madrid have 27. The 18-point gap gives the home side a clear target as they seek to climb the standings, while Madrid arrive with a strong position to protect. Valencia have scored eight league goals and conceded 17, compared with Madrid’s 28 scored and 10 conceded.
Madrid’s winning run
Both teams won their most recent league matches, but their broader runs differ. Valencia’s last five brought one win, two draws and two defeats, with six goals scored and seven conceded. They have taken two draws and suffered four defeats in six home league matches, scoring three times.
Real Madrid have won four league games in a row. Across their last five, they recorded four wins and a defeat, scoring 11 goals and conceding four. Away from home, they have four wins and two defeats in six league matches, with 11 goals scored.
Recent meetings favour Madrid
Real Madrid have won three of the last five meetings, with Valencia taking one win and the other match drawn. The most recent encounter, in February 2026, ended Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid. Only one of those five meetings featured two goals or fewer.
A chance for Valencia’s attack
Valencia’s six goals across their last five league matches offer a route to trouble Madrid, though their home scoring record stands at just three goals in six games. Madrid’s recent defensive record is stronger, with four conceded in their last five, and their away attack has produced 11 goals in six matches.
Our prediction
Valencia’s need to climb the table makes a home response important, but Madrid’s four straight wins and stronger scoring record point to the visitors having the edge. PreviaXI’s model also favours Real Madrid, with a narrow result the likeliest outcome.
Valencia 0-1 Real Madrid
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