1–0 Full time Saturday 24 October

Our pick1–0Exact score

Hamburg chase a fourth straight win at a struggling Paderborn

Hamburger SV arrive in Paderborn on the back of three straight Bundesliga wins, while the hosts have collected just one victory in six games this season. Can the visitors keep their run alive?

📍 Home Deluxe Arena

All Matchday 7 matches

Match report

SC Paderborn 07 beat Hamburger SV 1-0 in Bundesliga Regular Season matchday 7. The only goal came late, when Rayan Philippe scored in the 88th minute, assisted by Felix Götze. No red cards were shown in the match.

Paderborn controlled the numbers, with 62% possession to 38% and 16 total shots to 8. Their expected goals figure was 1.21 against 0.49 for Hamburger SV, and they had 6 shots on target to their opponent's 1, while Hamburger SV made 5 saves. Paderborn also won 6 corners to 3. T. Scheller was the top-rated player with a 7.9 rating. The result matches PreviaXI's pre-match model, which predicted a 1-0 home win, with probabilities of 42% for a home win, 29% for a draw and 29% for an away win.

Goals

88'Rayan Philippe · Felix Götze · SC Paderborn 07

Cards

53'Shafiq Nandja · Hamburger SV
58'Jano ter Horst · SC Paderborn 07
87'Albert Sambi Lokonga · Hamburger SV
89'Merlin Polzin · Hamburger SV

Match stats

SC Paderborn 07Hamburger SV

62%Possession38%

16Shots8

6Shots on target1

1.21Expected goals (xG)0.49

6Corners3

12Fouls15

2Offsides0

1Saves5

⭐ Top-rated player: T. Scheller (SC Paderborn 07) 7.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

SC Paderborn 07 · 3-5-2

15N. NollG
21J. ter HorstD
25T. SchellerD
22M. HansenD
17L. CurdaM
28L. UlrichM
5S. CastañedaM
40G. VidovićM
23R. ObermairM
30S. MarinoF
27S. TiggesF

Coach: R. Kettemann

Hamburger SV · 3-5-2

1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
43S. NandjaD
33S. BornauwD
17W. OmariD
7Z. El OuahdiM
5M. AdelineM
4B. NadirM
28M. MuheimM
3D. Møller WolfeM
15Y. PoulsenF
20Fábio VieiraF

Coach: M. Polzin

Match facts

Recent form

SC Paderborn 07LLWLD

Hamburger SVLLWWW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
SC Paderborn 07	0.8	1.5
Hamburger SV	1.0	2.5

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
9	Hamburger SV	6	-9	9
16	SC Paderborn 07	6	-4	5

Last meetings

2025SC Paderborn 072-0Hamburger SV
2024Hamburger SV2-2SC Paderborn 07
2024SC Paderborn 071-0Hamburger SV
2023Hamburger SV1-2SC Paderborn 07
2023Hamburger SV2-2SC Paderborn 07

Absences

SC Paderborn 07

OutN. Awortwie-Grant · Knee Injury
OutO. Batista Meier · Ankle Injury
OutT. Gayret · Knee Injury
OutM. Hoffmeier · Muscle Injury
OutS. Klaas · Muscle Injury

Hamburger SV

OutN. Remberg · Knee Injury
OutM. Vuskovic · Doping

PreviaXI model

SC Paderborn 0742%Draw29%Hamburger SV29%

Predicted score: 1-0
Expected goals (model): 1.30 – 1.04
Double chance: 1X · 71%12 71% · X2 58%
Over 2.5 goals: 41%
Both teams score: 47%
Expected corners: 10.56.8 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 59%
Expected cards: 4.42.3 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 64%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Paderborn have won only once in six Bundesliga games this season, and their home form is no better: one win and two defeats from three matches at the Home Deluxe Arena. Five points from six games leave them 16th of 18 and in real trouble.

Hamburger SV are heading the other way. Three straight wins have pulled them out of a losing spell that began with three defeats, and they sit ninth with nine points. The question on Saturday is whether that momentum can travel to Ostwestfalen.

Stakes at both ends of the table

For Paderborn, every week at the bottom matters more. Their goal difference of minus four is far from disastrous, but they have yet to build the consistency that gives a side confidence at home.

Hamburg’s numbers carry a warning. They have scored six and conceded 15, a goal difference of minus nine. Their wins have come, but the defence has been leaking.

Form

Paderborn have scored five times in their last five league games and conceded nine, a pattern that shows a side capable of hurting opponents but unable to stop them. Hamburg have been more potent recently, with six goals in their last five, though they have conceded 13 in that spell.

Head-to-head

Hamburg have not beaten Paderborn in any of their last five meetings in this competition. Paderborn have won three of those games, with two draws. The most recent visit to Hamburg ended 2-1 to the visitors in December 2023, and the last meeting in Paderborn was a 2-0 win in March 2025.

Team news

Paderborn will be without five players: N. Awortwie-Grant and T. Gayret (both knee injuries), O. Batista Meier (ankle), and M. Hoffmeier and S. Klaas (both muscle injuries). Hamburg are missing N. Remberg (knee) and M. Vuskovic, who is out for doping reasons.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model narrowly favours Paderborn, and the reasoning is clear: home advantage counts for something, and Paderborn have been the more likely side to create chances in front of their own supporters. Hamburg’s away record of one win in three is a concern for them, and their defensive numbers give the hosts hope. Expect a tight, cagey game, with the home side’s extra threat proving decisive.

SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV

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