4–0 Full time Saturday 24 October

Our pick2–1Correct result

Elversberg and Leipzig chase the same narrow edge

Separated by a single point in the Bundesliga table, SV Elversberg travel to Leipzig knowing a win would open a small but meaningful gap. The hosts have their own reasons to tighten up the top half.

📍 Leipzig Red Bull Arena

All Matchday 7 matches

Match report

RB Leipzig beat SV Elversberg 4-0 in round 7 of the Bundesliga. Tidiam Gomis opened the scoring in the 48th minute, assisted by Antonio Nusa. Rômulo doubled the lead in the 66th minute, again assisted by Nusa. Christoph Baumgartner made it 3-0 in the 84th minute, with Brajan Gruda providing the assist. Rômulo completed the scoring in added time, 90+4, assisted by Abdoul Kone.

Leipzig controlled the numbers with 55% possession and 13 shots to Elversberg's 5, and their shots on target were 6 to 1. Their expected goals total was 2.91 against 0.68, while Elversberg had six corners to Leipzig's four. Rômulo was the top-rated player with 8.8. Before kickoff, PreviaXI's model had predicted a 2-1 home win, with 65% for a Leipzig win, 17% for a draw and 18% for an Elversberg win, so the final 4-0 was more one-sided than that projection.

Goals

48'Tidiam Gomis · Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig
66'Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz · Antonio Nusa · RB Leipzig
84'Christoph Baumgartner · Brajan Gruda · RB Leipzig
90+4'Rômulo José Cardoso da Cruz · Abdoul Kone · RB Leipzig

Cards

59'Rocco Reitz · RB Leipzig
74'Lasse Günther · SV Elversberg

Match stats

RB LeipzigSV Elversberg

55%Possession45%

13Shots5

6Shots on target1

2.91Expected goals (xG)0.68

4Corners6

10Fouls18

0Offsides1

1Saves2

⭐ Top-rated player: Rômulo (RB Leipzig) 8.8

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

RB Leipzig · 4-5-1

1Ø. NylandG
39B. HenrichsD
4W. OrbánD
3M. EstèveD
35Max FinkgräfeD
30A. MaksimoviÄM
20R. ReitzM
21N. El AynaouiM
6E. BanzuziM
7A. NusaM
27T. GomisF

Coach: M. Demichelis

SV Elversberg · 4-2-3-1

20N. KristofG
30J. GyamerahD
19L. PinckertD
31M. RohrD
21L. GüntherD
43F. KeidelM
8Ł. PorębaM
25L. PetkovM
17F. SchmahlM
7M. KrattenmacherM
42D. MokwaF

Coach: V. Wagner

Match facts

Recent form

RB LeipzigLWLWL

SV ElversbergWLDLW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
RB Leipzig	2.7	1.8
SV Elversberg	2.0	1.8

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
6	SV Elversberg	6	+1	10
7	RB Leipzig	6	+5	9

Last meetings

2014RB Leipzig2-0SV Elversberg
2013SV Elversberg1-0RB Leipzig

Absences

RB Leipzig

OutM. Guiu · Hamstring Injury
OutA. Ouedraogo · Shoulder Injury

SV Elversberg

OutC. Campbell · Ankle Injury
OutF. Onyeka · Foot Injury
OutL. Seifert · Ankle Injury
OutT. Zimmerschied · Ankle Injury
DoubtfulN. Darvich · Injury

PreviaXI model

RB Leipzig65%Draw17%SV Elversberg18%

Predicted score: 2-1
Expected goals (model): 2.71 – 1.40
Double chance: 12 · 83%1X 82% · X2 35%
Over 2.5 goals: 78%
Both teams score: 70%
Expected corners: 11.88.2 – 3.6 · Over 9.5: 73%
Expected cards: 3.31.5 – 1.8 · Over 3.5: 41%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

SV Elversberg arrive in Leipzig sixth in the table with 10 points, one place and one point ahead of RB Leipzig. The margin is so slim that a single result on Saturday could reshape the picture for both clubs.

A point and a place between them

Leipzig have scored more goals this season, 16 to Elversberg’s 12, but both sides have conceded 11. That leaves Leipzig with a goal difference of +5 and Elversberg with +1, so the hosts hold the stronger numbers while the visitors hold the better league position. Neither side can afford to drift in a congested middle of the table.

Two very different records

Leipzig’s season has been split sharply by venue. They have won all three home games and scored 14 of their 16 goals in Leipzig, but they have lost all three away matches and conceded every one of their goals on the road. Their last five league games have produced 13 goals for and 11 against.

Elversberg are more balanced. They have won twice at home and once away, and they have collected a draw on their travels. Their most worrying pattern is timing: six of their 11 conceded goals have come between the 76th and 90th minutes, which suggests a team that has been caught out late in games.

Old meetings, little precedent

The two clubs have met only twice in the league, both in the 3. Liga. Leipzig won 2-0 in 2014, and Elversberg won 1-0 at home in 2013. Neither meeting offers much guidance for a Bundesliga clash, and the modern gap between the clubs makes the old results largely academic.

Injuries shape the selection

Leipzig will be without M. Guiu, who is sidelined by a hamstring injury, and A. Ouedraogo, out with a shoulder problem. Elversberg face a longer list of absentees: C. Campbell, F. Onyeka, L. Seifert and T. Zimmerschied are all missing, while N. Darvich is a doubt with an injury of his own.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s statistical model favours the home side, and the football logic points the same way. Leipzig’s home record is strong and they create more chances, but Elversberg have shown they can score early and have the know-how to test a defence late on. With Elversberg’s squad stretched by injuries, the game should be open and competitive, with the hosts just edging a tight contest.

RB Leipzig 2-1 SV Elversberg

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