Serie A · Matchday 10 
Sassuolo under pressure as Fiorentina visit
Sassuolo have lost four of their last five league matches and conceded 15 goals in that run. Fiorentina are also struggling, but the hosts’ defensive record makes this a pressing test.
📍 Mapei Stadium – Città del Tricolore
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All Matchday 10 matchesFull head-to-head
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sassuolo | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Fiorentina | 1.2 | 2.3 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.38 – 1.42
- Double chance
- 12 · 75%1X 62% · X2 63%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 53%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 31%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Clean sheet
- 24% – 25%Sassuolo–Fiorentina
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 29% · 2 30%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 23%1/1 22% · X/X 14%
- Expected corners
- 8.84.2 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 39%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.2 – 2.4 · Over 3.5: 67%
- Most likely scores
- 1-112%
- 0-19%
- 1-09%
- 1-28%
- 2-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model sees a close match
- Power ratings: Sassuolo -0.26 goals per game (14th of 20 in Serie A), Fiorentina -0.06 (11th).
- Sassuolo's attack (1.26 goals per game) meets Fiorentina's defence (1.39 conceded per game).
- Fiorentina's attack (1.33) meets Sassuolo's defence (1.52).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 13% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.38 – 1.42 goals: Sassuolo 37%, draw 25%, Fiorentina 38%.
Key trends
- 7 of Fiorentina’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
- Fiorentina have scored in each of their last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Sassuolo’s last 8 matches.
- Both teams scored in 7 of Fiorentina’s last 8 matches.
- Sassuolo have lost their last 3 matches.
- Fiorentina have not won in their last 5 matches.
Absences
Sassuolo
- OutD. Boloca · Muscle Injury
- OutI. Kone · Broken Leg
- OutF. Leysen · Knee Injury
- OutY. Paz · Knee Injury
- OutK. Thorstvedt · Red Card
Fiorentina
- OutA. Atta · Abdominal strain
- OutF. Parisi · Knee Injury
- OutM. Pongracic · Muscle Injury
- OutR. Sottil · Back Injury
- DoubtfulL. Ranieri · Leg Injury
Injury and suspension list from our data provider, updated every 6 hours. It can change before kick-off.
Chance to score
Sassuolo
- Vasilije Adžić4 goals in 8 games24%
- C. Odenthal2 goals in 6 games18%
- S. Esposito2 goals in 7 games14%
Fiorentina
- Mateo Pellegrino3 goals in 10 games18%
- Franco Mastantuono3 goals in 11 games17%
- Álex Jiménez2 goals in 9 games13%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Sassuolo | Fiorentina | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-5 | 2-1-1 | 1-2-6 | 1-0-3 |
| Goals scored per game | 1.56 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 1.50 |
| Goals conceded per game | 2.44 | 2.50 | 2.33 | 2.50 |
| xG per game | 1.42 | 1.21 | 1.49 | 1.18 |
| xG against per game | 1.68 | 1.78 | 1.53 | 1.99 |
| Scored in | 89% | 100% | 78% | 75% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 11% | 0% | 22% | 25% |
| Both teams scored | 89% | 100% | 78% | 75% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 78% | 75% | 89% | 100% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 44% | 50% | 44% | 50% |
| Shots per game | 14.0 | 12.0 | 16.6 | 12.0 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 4.8 |
| Shots on target | 36% | 38% | 30% | 40% |
| Possession | 47% | 43% | 47% | 44% |
| Passes per game | 452.6 | 435.8 | 396.6 | 374.5 |
| Pass accuracy | 87% | 87% | 84% | 83% |
| Corners per game | 4.0 | 3.0 | 5.1 | 3.0 |
| Corners against per game | 5.7 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 3.2 |
| Cards per game | 1.6 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 |
| Fouls per game | 9.4 | 10.0 | 11.2 | 10.2 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Sassuolo
- 0-151 / 5
- 16-301 / 3
- 31-453 / 1
- 46-602 / 7
- 61-752 / 4
- 76-90+4 / 3
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Fiorentina
- 0-150 / 2
- 16-302 / 4
- 31-451 / 4
- 46-603 / 3
- 61-753 / 4
- 76-90+1 / 5
Usual formation: 4-3-3
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
Table as of
Next matches
Sassuolo
- Sat 7 NovAS Roma – SassuoloSerie A
- Sun 22 NovSassuolo – GenoaSerie A
- Sun 29 NovSassuolo – NapoliSerie A
Fiorentina
- Sun 8 NovFiorentina – JuventusSerie A
- Mon 23 NovMonza – FiorentinaSerie A
- Sun 29 NovUdinese – FiorentinaSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Sassuolo 4 wins · 3 draws · Fiorentina 3 wins
- 26/04/2026Fiorentina0-0SassuoloSerie A
- 06/12/2025Sassuolo3-1FiorentinaSerie A
- 28/04/2024Fiorentina5-1SassuoloSerie A
- 06/01/2024Sassuolo1-0FiorentinaSerie A
- 02/06/2023Sassuolo1-3FiorentinaSerie A
- 07/01/2023Fiorentina2-1SassuoloSerie A
- 26/02/2022Sassuolo2-1FiorentinaSerie A
- 19/12/2021Fiorentina2-2SassuoloSerie A
- 17/04/2021Sassuolo3-1FiorentinaSerie A
- 16/12/2020Fiorentina1-1SassuoloSerie A
Sassuolo’s need for a response
Sassuolo have conceded 15 goals in their last five matches, a striking return that underlines the pressure on them ahead of Fiorentina’s visit. They sit 15th after nine rounds, with eight points and a goal difference of minus eight. Fiorentina are two places lower, 17th on five points, so both sides are looking for a result to ease their early-season concerns.
The stakes are heightened by the hosts’ recent slide: Sassuolo’s last five league results read four defeats and one draw. Fiorentina have also struggled, but Sassuolo’s defensive troubles put the spotlight firmly on their ability to stop the slide at home.
Two sides short on momentum
Sassuolo have lost four of their last five, scoring six goals and conceding 15. They have let in 22 goals across nine league matches and have yet to keep a clean sheet. Their 2-1 home win-loss-draw record offers some encouragement, though they have conceded 10 times in four home games.
Fiorentina’s last five have brought one draw and four defeats, with six goals scored and 10 conceded. They have taken just one win in nine league matches and have conceded 21 goals. Their recent defensive record is less severe than Sassuolo’s, but neither side arrives in convincing form.
Recent meetings offer mixed signals
The last five Serie A meetings have produced two wins for Sassuolo, two for Fiorentina and one draw. Sassuolo won 3-1 in the most recent meeting at this stadium, in December 2025, while the latest encounter ended 0-0 in April 2026.
Absences add to the challenge
Sassuolo will be without D. Boloca, I. Kone, F. Leysen and Y. Paz through injury, while K. Thorstvedt is suspended. Fiorentina have A. Atta, F. Parisi, M. Pongracic and R. Sottil out, with L. Ranieri questionable.
A fine margin for the visitors
Sassuolo’s recent goals against tally makes defensive improvement essential, but Fiorentina’s own record of 21 conceded in nine matches is hardly secure. The visitors have scored six times in their last five, matching Sassuolo’s output, and could find opportunities if the hosts’ back line remains vulnerable.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model gives Fiorentina a narrow edge, with the visitors’ slightly better recent defensive record pointing towards a tight contest. Sassuolo’s home advantage and need for a response should keep the game close, but Fiorentina are favoured to edge it.
Sassuolo 0-1 Fiorentina
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