Mali’s winning run faces a Rwanda test after latest meeting

A three-point gap in Group K

Mali’s 3-2 win over Rwanda on 13 November is the latest chapter in a fixture that comes just four days later. Mali lead Group K with nine points after three matches, three ahead of second-placed Rwanda, so another victory would strengthen their position at the top. Rwanda have a chance to close that gap on home soil.

Mali’s run against Rwanda’s home start

Mali have won all three of their Africa Cup of Nations qualifying matches, scoring seven goals and conceding three. Their only away match in this competition ended in a win, with one goal scored and none conceded.

Rwanda’s sole home match in this competition also brought a win: they scored three and conceded once. Across their three qualifying matches, Rwanda have scored seven and let in five, suggesting their attack can contribute but their defensive record gives Mali an opening. A pattern to watch is whether Rwanda can repeat their home scoring while limiting a Mali side that has conceded only three times in the competition.

Mali have won the last three meetings

Mali have won each of the last three meetings between the sides, with no Rwanda wins or draws. The latest was the five-goal contest on 13 November, when Mali prevailed 3-2; the two earlier meetings were World Cup qualifying matches in 2021.

Our prediction

Mali’s three straight wins and stronger defensive record in this competition give them the edge, though Rwanda’s home victory and recent goals make a home response plausible. A draw or another Mali win looks more likely than a Rwanda victory, but the outcome is not settled.