La Liga · Matchday 11 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Rayo’s home edge meets Celta’s defensive resolve
Celta Vigo arrive in better recent form and with a much stronger defensive record, but their away scoring has been sparse. Rayo Vallecano’s vulnerability is real, yet PreviaXI’s model sees their home advantage tipping a tight contest.
📍 Estadio de Vallecas
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All Matchday 11 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Rayo Vallecano beat Celta Vigo 3-0 in La Liga. Jorge De Frutos opened the scoring in the 36th minute, assisted by Sergio Camello. He struck again in the 55th minute, with Andrei Rațiu providing the assist, before Unai López added a third in the 73rd minute, assisted by Gnangoro Bouare. Rayo Vallecano kept a clean sheet, and there were no red cards.
The statistics show a striking contrast between the scoreline and the expected-goals figures: Celta Vigo recorded 1.26 xG to Rayo Vallecano’s 1.13, but Rayo had eight shots on target compared with none for the visitors. Rayo also had more possession, 53% to 47%. Jorge de Frutos was the top-rated player, with a 9.1 rating. The 3-0 result was wider than the model’s predicted 1-0 home win, though it had favoured Rayo Vallecano to win (43%), ahead of a draw (29%) and a Celta Vigo win (28%).
Goals
- 36'Jorge De Frutos · Sergio Camello · Rayo Vallecano
- 55'Jorge De Frutos · Andrei Rațiu · Rayo Vallecano
- 73'Unai López · Gnangoro Bouare · Rayo Vallecano
Cards
- 26'Unai López · Rayo Vallecano
- 72'Gnangoro Bouare · Rayo Vallecano
- 82'Williot Swedberg · Celta Vigo
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Jorge de Frutos (Rayo Vallecano) 9.1
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Rayo Vallecano · 4-3-3
- 25E. AuderoG
- 2A. RațiuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 10Sergio CamelloF
- 18Álvaro GarcíaF
Coach: Beñat San José
Celta Vigo · 3-4-3
- 13I. RaduG
- 20Javi RodríguezD
- 18Yoel LagoD
- 21S. CáceresD
- 17Javi RuedaM
- 6I. MoribaM
- 14Aleix FebasM
- 22Javi GalánM
- 23Hugo ÁlvarezF
- 9Ferran JutglàF
- 16Hugo GonzálezF
Coach: Claudio Giráldez
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Rayo Vallecano | 1.3 | 2.2 |
| Celta Vigo | 1.0 | 0.7 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 10 | +3 | 12 |
| 16 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | -8 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026Celta Vigo3-0Rayo Vallecano
- 2025Rayo Vallecano1-1Celta Vigo
- 2025Celta Vigo1-2Rayo Vallecano
- 2025Rayo Vallecano2-1Celta Vigo
- 2024Celta Vigo0-0Rayo Vallecano
Absences
Rayo Vallecano
- OutA. Batalla · Broken calfbone
- OutP. Ciss · Yellow Cards
- OutLuiz Felipe · Knee Injury
- DoubtfulA. Ratiu · Muscle Injury
Celta Vigo
- OutJ. El Abdellaoui · Knee Injury
- OutB. Iglesias · Calf Injury
- OutA. Nunez · Groin Injury
- OutM. Roman · Knee Injury
- OutC. Starfelt · Muscle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.38 – 1.07
- Double chance
- 1X · 72%12 71% · X2 57%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 44%Over 1.5: 71% · Over 3.5: 23%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 34% – 25%Rayo Vallecano–Celta Vigo
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 32% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 26%X/X 18% · 2/2 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.35.8 – 3.5 · Over 9.5: 45%
- Expected cards
- 4.82.6 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 69%
- Most likely scores
- 1-114%
- 1-011%
- 0-09%
- 2-19%
- 0-18%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Celta Vigo have conceded just twice across their last five matches, while Rayo Vallecano have let in 10. That defensive contrast sets the tone for Saturday’s La Liga meeting: Celta bring the sturdier recent form, but Rayo have a chance to make home advantage count against a side that has scored only once away in the league this season.
A gap in the table
Celta sit ninth with 12 points from 10 games; Rayo are 16th on nine points after nine. The hosts need to turn their Vallecas fixtures into a source of points: they have won two of four at home, while Celta are unbeaten in four away league matches, all drawn.
Celta’s defensive surge
Rayo have conceded 10 goals in their last five, averaging two per match, and have not kept a clean sheet in the league this season. Their overall record stands at 12 goals scored and 20 conceded.
Celta’s recent numbers point the other way: eight goals scored and two conceded in their last five, with five clean sheets across the campaign. Yet their four away league games have produced just one goal for and one against. Rayo, meanwhile, have scored six in four home matches, giving the hosts a clear opportunity to test Celta’s defence.
Recent meetings favour Rayo
The last five league encounters are evenly balanced, with two wins apiece and a draw. Rayo won both meetings in 2025, including a 2-1 result in January, but Celta claimed a 3-0 home victory in the most recent meeting, in January 2026.
Several absences
Rayo are without A. Batalla, P. Ciss and Luiz Felipe; A. Ratiu is questionable. Celta will be missing J. El Abdellaoui, B. Iglesias, A. Nunez, M. Roman and C. Starfelt.
The home threat
Rayo’s attack has been more productive at Vallecas, averaging 1.5 goals across their four home league games. Celta’s defensive form is the stronger recent signal, but their low away scoring makes it difficult to assume they will take full advantage of Rayo’s season-long defensive struggles.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours a narrow Rayo win, with the home side’s stronger scoring output at Vallecas edging Celta’s defensive resilience. The visitors’ one away goal this season also points towards a low-scoring game.
Rayo Vallecano 1-0 Celta Vigo
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