Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
No recent meetings — a David vs Goliath league contrast in Copa del Rey opener
Poblense and AD Ceuta FC have no recent head-to-head history, setting up a Cup tie built around a clash between a confident lower-league side and a struggling second-division team.
Preview written:
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Poblense | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| AD Ceuta FC | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.48 – 0.91
- Double chance
- 1X · 78%12 72% · X2 50%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 43%Over 1.5: 70% · Over 3.5: 22%
- Both teams score
- 47%
- Clean sheet
- 40% – 23%Poblense–AD Ceuta FC
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 36% · 2 20%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 30%X/X 18% · X/1 17%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 1-013%
- 2-010%
- 0-010%
- 2-19%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Recent history — there isn’t any
Poblense and AD Ceuta FC have no recorded recent meetings, so this Round of 128 tie in the Copa del Rey will provide the first fresh reference point between the two clubs in competitive action.
What’s at stake in the cup
This is a classic cup mismatch on paper: Poblense compete in the Segunda División RFEF (fourth tier) and sit 10th in Group 3 with 10 points from eight matches, whereas AD Ceuta FC are a Segunda División (second tier) side languishing 21st with five points from 11. For Poblense the tie is a chance to measure themselves against higher-level opposition and build momentum; for Ceuta it represents an opportunity to arrest a poor run and prove their second-division status still counts.
Form tells contrasting stories
Poblense arrive in better recent domestic shape, listed with a form sequence of WDWLW in their league. They have picked up points regularly and look comfortable at this level. AD Ceuta FC, by contrast, have struggled in Segunda with LLLDW as their recent sequence and only five points from 11 games, indicating defensive and consistency issues that have left them near the foot of the table.
The statistical model backs the home-side case: it projects Poblense to create more in this match and gives them the edge while still expecting a tight game. The expected-goals split (1.48 for Poblense, 0.91 for Ceuta) suggests chances will be limited and that small margins will decide the tie.
Our prediction
This should be a narrow, low-scoring cup tie where Poblense’s cohesion at their level and home advantage can trouble a faltering Ceuta side. Expect Poblense to nick a close win rather than a high-scoring affair.
Poblense 1-0 AD Ceuta FC
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