Panama and Curaçao meet with progression at stake after a goalless first leg
Panama and Curaçao return to Panama City for the quarter-final second leg after a goalless first leg. The prize is a place in the March 2027 Nations League Finals and the 2027 Gold Cup.
📍 Estadio Rommel Fernandez
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A quarter-final still open
Panama and Curaçao return to Panama City for the quarter-final second leg after a goalless first leg. The prize is a place in the March 2027 Nations League Finals and the 2027 Gold Cup. The aggregate winner advances. Away goals break an aggregate tie; if the teams are still level, extra time and, if needed, penalties follow.
Curaçao’s scoring edge
In five matches in this competition, Curaçao have scored 12 goals and conceded five, with three wins and two draws. Panama’s competition record covers just one match: a 0-0 draw. That contrast points to Curaçao as the more productive side, while Panama’s single match is too small a sample for a broader comparison.
Curaçao’s away figures offer both encouragement and a caution: in two away matches in this competition, they scored five goals but conceded four, with one win and one draw. A pattern to watch is whether they can maintain their scoring output without allowing Panama to exploit the defensive openings seen in those away games.
Panama’s unbeaten run against Curaçao
Panama are unbeaten in the last four meetings, with two wins and two draws; Curaçao have not won any of them. The latest meeting, the first leg of this quarter-final, ended 0-0.
Our prediction
Curaçao have the edge: their five-match scoring record in this competition is stronger, and PreviaXI’s model favours an away win. Panama’s unbeaten record across the last four meetings offers a counterpoint, so a home result or another draw remain plausible alternatives.
Understand the analysis
Worked examples, uncertainty and the difference between a likely result and an exact score.
Confirmed lineups
Panama · 5-4-1
- 22O. MosqueraG
- 23A. MurilloD
- 14C. HarveyD
- 3J. CórdobaD
- 16A. AndradeD
- 15J. GutiérrezD
- 13J. RamosD
- 6Cristian Jesús MartínezM
- 8A. CarrasquillaM
- 10I. DíazF
- 21K. BarriaF
Coach: Thomas Christiansen
Curaçao · 4-2-3-1
- 1E. RoomG
- 20J. BrenetD
- 2S. SamboD
- 3J. GaariD
- 19J. CarolinaD
- 10L. BacunaD
- 8L. ComenenciaM
- 21T. ChongF
- 7J. BacunaF
- 14K. GorréF
- 9Jerolldino BergraafF
Coach: D. Advocaat
Match facts
Recent form
Panama
- D A Curaçao 0-0
- L A Mexico 1-2
- W A USA 1-0
- D H Costa Rica 2-2
- W A Costa Rica 1-0
Curaçao
- D H Panama 0-0
- D A Trinidad and Tobago 1-1
- W H Trinidad and Tobago 1-0
- W H Nicaragua 6-1
- W A Costa Rica 4-3
Completed matches in our provider’s data, newest first. The listed team’s goals appear first in each score.
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Panama | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| Curaçao | 2.4 | 1.0 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Curaçao 0-0 Panama
- 2023 Curaçao 1-2 Panama
- 2021 Curaçao 0-0 Panama
- 2021 Panama 2-1 Curaçao
- 2020 Curaçao None-None Panama
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 0.86 – 1.73
- Double chance
- Draw or away win81%Home win or draw 41% · Either team wins 78%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 55%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 51%
- Clean sheet
- 18% – 42%Panama–Curaçao
- Half-time result
- 2 · 42%1 17% · X 41%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 37%X/2 19% · X/X 14%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Curaçao
- Expected goals favour Curaçao: 0.86 – 1.73.
- The model gives Curaçao a 42% chance of a clean sheet.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 41%, led by a draw at 22%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty.

