Montenegro 2–1 Latvia

The group leaders’ advantage

Montenegro are nine points and three places above Latvia after four matches in League C - Group B, making this a meeting between the group’s first- and fourth-placed sides. Montenegro have 10 points and a goal difference of +3; Latvia have one point and a goal difference of -4.

Four matches unbeaten

The recent head-to-head record gives Montenegro a clear basis for confidence: they have won twice and drawn twice across the last four meetings, remaining unbeaten throughout. The latest encounter came in October, when Montenegro beat Latvia 2-1 in the UEFA Nations League. Earlier meetings included a 0-0 draw and a 2-1 Montenegro win in World Cup qualifying, plus a 1-1 friendly draw.

That history suggests Latvia have often made the contest close, but have not found a way to win. Montenegro’s latest victory also gives the visitors a recent example of the task facing them in Podgorica.

Contrasting Nations League runs

In this competition, Montenegro have taken three wins and a draw from four matches and are unbeaten in four. They have scored seven goals and conceded four, with one clean sheet. At home in the Nations League, they have a win and a draw from two games, conceding once.

Latvia’s four-match competition record is a draw and three defeats, and they arrive after two losses in a row. They have scored twice and conceded six. Their two away matches in the Nations League have both ended in defeat, with one goal scored and four conceded.

What the recent meetings point to

The October result is the most relevant reference, but the wider run matters too: Latvia have not beaten Montenegro in any of the last four meetings. Montenegro’s stronger group position and unbeaten competition run reinforce that edge, while the earlier draws are a reminder that this fixture can remain tight.

Our prediction

Montenegro have the stronger case, with their group-leading form and recent head-to-head record pointing towards a home win. Latvia’s previous draws against Montenegro leave room for resistance, so a close contest remains a plausible alternative.