Italy 3–1 France

Italy’s unbeaten run meets France’s lead

Italy have gone three matches without defeat, and their latest Nations League outing ended in a win. France arrive on an even longer unbeaten run of four matches, also coming off a victory. Their meeting at San Siro on Thursday is a contest between the top two in League A Group A, with France three points clear of Italy after four matches.

The points make the stakes clear: a home win would bring Italy closer to the leaders, while France can preserve or extend their advantage. A draw would leave the gap unchanged.

Form in this competition

Italy’s four Nations League matches have brought two wins, a draw and a defeat. They have scored eight goals and conceded five, but are yet to keep a clean sheet. At home in the competition, they have one win and one defeat, with three goals for and three against.

France have three wins and a draw from their four matches, scoring seven and conceding two. They have kept two clean sheets, both away from home, where they have won twice and conceded no goals. These figures cover Nations League matches only, not either side’s wider season form.

Recent meetings offer little separation

The last five meetings across the competitions listed are level: Italy have two wins, France have two, and one match was drawn. Their most recent encounter, in October, finished 1-1 in the Nations League. Two of those five meetings had two goals or fewer, a reminder that this rivalry can be tight despite the sides’ scoring records in the current group.

Players to watch

No individual players are identified, so the focus is on the teams’ contrasting patterns. Italy have scored eight times in four matches but have not kept a clean sheet. France have been more restrained in attack, with seven goals, while conceding only twice and keeping two clean sheets. That defensive record—especially away from home—could be important if Italy press to close the points gap.

Our prediction

France’s unbeaten run and defensive record give them a slight edge. Their away resilience makes a draw plausible, while Italy have a chance to close the gap in the group.