Albania 2–0 Finland

Two points between them

Albania are two points above Finland after four matches in UEFA Nations League League C, with the sides occupying first and third place in a four-team group. Albania have nine points and Finland seven, so the gap is narrow—but the stakes are substantial as the group reaches its fifth round.

Albania’s goal difference is +5, while Finland’s is +7, a reminder that the visitors have been productive despite sitting two places lower. Albania will look to protect their advantage at Arena Kombëtare in Tirana; Finland have the chance to close it.

Different recent rhythms

Across their four matches in this competition, Albania have won three and lost one, scoring eight goals and conceding three. Their latest Nations League outing was a victory, and they have won both of their home matches in the competition, with four goals scored and one conceded.

Finland’s four-match record is two wins, a draw and a defeat. They have scored nine and conceded two, but their latest match ended in defeat. Away from home in this competition, Finland have one win and one loss, scoring seven goals and conceding one.

Finland have the recent edge

The teams’ only listed meeting came in October, when Finland beat Albania 2-1 in the Nations League. Finland therefore arrive with the recent head-to-head advantage, though the narrow table gap and Albania’s home results leave the contest finely poised.

The attacking numbers

Both sides have scored freely in their four Nations League matches: Albania have eight goals and Finland nine. The defensive figures are also strong, with Albania conceding three and Finland two; each has kept two clean sheets in the competition.

Our prediction

Finland’s slightly better goal difference and their recent win over Albania give the visitors a narrow edge, while Albania’s two home victories make a home result a credible alternative. A draw or Finland win looks the likeliest direction, but neither outcome is assured.