Bundesliga · Matchday 9 
FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: prediction, stats and form
Bundesliga, Saturday 7 November. The PreviaXI model gives FSV Mainz 05 17%, the draw 17% and Bayern München 66%, with a predicted score of 1-2. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
PreviaXI model
FSV Mainz 0517%Draw17%Bayern München66%
Model confidence: Strong
- Predicted score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.47 – 2.84
- Double chance
- 12 · 83%1X 34% · X2 83%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 80%Over 1.5: 93% · Over 3.5: 62%
- Both teams score
- 73%
- Clean sheet
- 6% – 23%FSV Mainz 05–Bayern München
- Half-time result
- 2 · 52%1 19% · X 29%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 45%X/2 16% · 1/1 10%
- Expected corners
- 9.74.2 – 5.5 · Over 9.5: 51%
- Expected cards
- 3.61.9 – 1.7 · Over 3.5: 48%
- Most likely scores
- 1-28%
- 1-38%
- 1-16%
- 2-26%
- 2-36%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Bayern München
- Power ratings: FSV Mainz 05 +0.09 goals per game (8th of 18 in Bundesliga), Bayern München +1.98 (1st).
- FSV Mainz 05's attack (1.76 goals per game) meets Bayern München's defence (1.21 conceded per game).
- Bayern München's attack (3.19) meets FSV Mainz 05's defence (1.67).
- Home advantage in this competition: home sides score about 29% more goals.
- Put together, the model expects 1.47 – 2.84 goals: FSV Mainz 05 17%, draw 17%, Bayern München 66%.
Match facts
Last matches · FSV Mainz 05
- L Fri 30 Oct A SV Elversberg 1-4
- L Tue 27 Oct A VfL Bochum 0-2
- L Sat 24 Oct H Werder Bremen 2-3
- W Sat 17 Oct A FC Schalke 04 1-0
- L Sat 10 Oct H Bayer Leverkusen 3-4
- W Sat 19 Sept A Borussia Mönchengladbach 4-3
Last matches · Bayern München
- D Sat 31 Oct H Borussia Dortmund 2-2
- W Wed 28 Oct H 1. FC Magdeburg 6-1
- W Sun 25 Oct A SC Freiburg 3-1
- D Wed 21 Oct H Arsenal 2-2
- W Sat 17 Oct H RB Leipzig 6-1
- D Tue 13 Oct A Viking 3-3
Last 10 matches
| · | FSV Mainz 05 | Bayern München |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 2.6 | 3.8 |
| Conceded | 1.9 | 1.3 |
| Points per game | 1.30 | 2.20 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 100% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 0% |
Home and away record
| · | FSV Mainz 05 (H) | Bayern München (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 1.6 | 2.5 |
| Conceded | 1.9 | 1.6 |
| Points per game | 1.00 | 2.10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Failed to score | 20% | 10% |
Home team: last 10 home games. Away team: last 10 away games.
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9/18 | FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 0 | 10 |
| 1/18 | Bayern München | 8 | +19 | 18 |
Last meetings
- 2026FSV Mainz 05 3-4 Bayern München
- 2025Bayern München 2-2 FSV Mainz 05
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.