Serie A · Matchday 35 
Flamengo vs Atletico Paranaense: prediction, stats and form
Serie A, Thursday 19 November. The PreviaXI model gives Flamengo 66%, the draw 21% and Atletico Paranaense 13%. Below: recent form, home and away records and head-to-head.
All Matchday 35 matches Full head-to-head
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: High
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.10 – 0.82
- Double chance
- Home win or draw87%Either team wins 79% · Draw or away win 34%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 58%Over 1.5: 79% · Over 3.5: 34%
- Both teams score
- 52%
- Clean sheet
- 44% – 12%Flamengo–Atletico Paranaense
- Half-time result
- 1 · 49%X 37% · 2 14%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 44%X/1 20% · X/X 13%
- Expected corners
- 10.46.7 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 56%
- Expected cards
- 4.52.2 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 62%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Why the model leans towards Flamengo
- Expected goals favour Flamengo: 2.10 – 0.82.
- The model gives Flamengo a 44% chance of a clean sheet.
Main uncertainty: the other two results still add up to 34%, led by a draw at 21%.
Built only from the model numbers above. For information; not a certainty. Power ratings: Serie A →
Key trends
- Flamengo have scored in each of their last 18 matches.
- Flamengo have won their last 8 home matches.
- Flamengo have won their last 5 matches.
- Flamengo are unbeaten in their last 10 home matches.
- Atletico Paranaense have conceded in each of their last 12 matches.
- 7 of Flamengo’s last 8 matches had over 2.5 goals.
Chance to score
Flamengo
- Pedro29 goals in 52 games 42%
- Lucas Paquetá13 goals in 39 games 27%
- Samuel Lino17 goals in 62 games 24%
Atletico Paranaense
- K. Viveros21 goals in 36 games 28%
- Leozinho5 goals in 22 games 11%
- Julimar3 goals in 13 games 10%
Model estimate: each player’s season goals per minute compared with his team’s, applied to the model’s expected goals for this match and his usual minutes. Players listed as out are left out.
Season stats
| · | Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| · | All | Home | All | Away |
| Won-drawn-lost | 23-7-4 | 13-3-1 | 15-9-10 | 6-4-7 |
| Goals scored per game | 2.09 | 2.06 | 1.50 | 1.35 |
| Goals conceded per game | 0.85 | 0.76 | 1.26 | 1.47 |
| xG per game | 1.74 | 1.87 | 1.33 | 0.97 |
| xG against per game | 0.91 | 0.68 | 1.16 | 1.59 |
| Scored in | 94% | 94% | 76% | 71% |
| Clean sheets | 41% | 47% | 24% | 18% |
| Failed to score | 6% | 6% | 24% | 29% |
| Both teams scored | 53% | 47% | 59% | 59% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 91% | 94% | 79% | 76% |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 59% | 50% | 53% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | 24% | 29% | 29% |
| Shots per game | 16.1 | 18.5 | 13.3 | 10.8 |
| Shots on target per game | 5.9 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 4.1 |
| Shots on target | 37% | 34% | 38% | 38% |
| Possession | 57% | 58% | 48% | 45% |
| Passes per game | 563.4 | 589.8 | 394.9 | 370.1 |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 88% | 83% | 82% |
| Corners per game | 5.7 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 4.0 |
| Corners against per game | 4.2 | 3.4 | 5.0 | 6.5 |
| Cards per game | 2.2 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.4 |
| Fouls per game | 11.7 | 12.1 | 13.8 | 14.5 |
League matches this season (Serie A). Per-game averages; % = share of matches.
When goals come
Flamengo
- 0-15 13 / 3
- 16-30 7 / 3
- 31-45 11 / 4
- 46-60 13 / 6
- 61-75 12 / 4
- 76-90+ 15 / 9
Usual formation: 4-2-3-1
Atletico Paranaense
- 0-15 13 / 7
- 16-30 6 / 9
- 31-45 7 / 8
- 46-60 8 / 2
- 61-75 5 / 6
- 76-90+ 12 / 11
Usual formation: 3-4-2-1
Goals scored (green) and conceded (orange) by 15-minute period, league matches this season.
Serie A table
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 34 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 34 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 34 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 |  Atletico-MG | 35 | +4 | 51 |
| 8 |  RB Bragantino | 34 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 |  Santos | 34 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 |  Sao Paulo | 34 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 |  Vasco DA Gama | 34 | -5 | 44 |
| 12 |  Botafogo | 34 | -7 | 42 |
| 13 |  Coritiba | 34 | -11 | 42 |
| 14 |  Mirassol | 35 | -9 | 41 |
| 15 |  Vitoria | 34 | -16 | 38 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 34 | -4 | 38 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 34 | -37 | 21 |
Table as of
Next matches
Flamengo
- Sat 21 Nov Palmeiras – FlamengoSerie A
- Sun 29 Nov Coritiba – FlamengoSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Flamengo – Chapecoense-scSerie A
Atletico Paranaense
- Sun 22 Nov Atletico Paranaense – RemoSerie A
- Mon 30 Nov Mirassol – Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- Thu 3 Dec Atletico Paranaense – Sao PauloSerie A
Head-to-head: last 10 meetings
Flamengo 6 wins · 2 draws · Atletico Paranaense 2 wins
- 17/05/2026 Atletico Paranaense 1-1 FlamengoSerie A
- 29/09/2024 Flamengo 1-0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 16/06/2024 Atletico Paranaense 1-1 FlamengoSerie A
- 14/09/2023 Flamengo 0-3 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
- 13/07/2023 Atletico Paranaense 0-2 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
- 06/07/2023 Flamengo 2-1 Atletico ParanaenseCopa Do Brasil
- 07/05/2023 Atletico Paranaense 2-1 FlamengoSerie A
- 29/10/2022 Flamengo 1-0 Atletico ParanaenseCONMEBOL Libertadores
- 18/08/2022 Atletico Paranaense 0-1 FlamengoCopa Do Brasil
- 14/08/2022 Flamengo 5-0 Atletico ParanaenseSerie A
Match facts
Last matches · Flamengo
- W Wed 4 Nov H Gremio 3-1
- W Thu 29 Oct A Vasco DA Gama 4-1
- W Mon 26 Oct H Atletico-MG 3-2
- W Sun 18 Oct A Bahia 3-0
- W Sun 11 Oct H Fluminense 1-0
- D Thu 8 Oct A Santos 2-2
Last matches · Atletico Paranaense
- L Wed 4 Nov H Vasco DA Gama 1-3
- L Fri 30 Oct A Gremio 0-2
- D Sat 24 Oct A Vitoria 1-1
- L Sat 17 Oct H Palmeiras 0-2
- W Mon 12 Oct A Chapecoense-sc 4-1
- D Thu 8 Oct H Atletico-MG 2-2
Recent record
| · | Flamengo | Atletico Paranaense |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 2.3 | 1.7 |
| Conceded | 0.8 | 2.1 |
| Points per game | 2.80 | 1.00 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams score | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 0% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% |
Home and away record
| · | Flamengo (H) | Atletico Paranaense (A) |
|---|---|---|
| Matches in sample | 10 | 10 |
| Scored | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| Conceded | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Points per game | 2.80 | 1.80 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams score | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Failed to score | 0% | 20% |
Form, records and head-to-head come from our model data: this competition's matches over the last two seasons (plus the teams' league games for cup and European ties), so some cup matches may be missing.