1–3 Full time Saturday 31 October

Our pick0–1Correct result

Birmingham’s unbeaten run against Lincoln gives them the edge

Birmingham have won all three of their recent meetings with Lincoln and arrive in stronger form. Lincoln will look to make home advantage count after conceding heavily in recent matches.

📍 Sincil Bank

Preview written: Fri 30 Oct 02:05

All Matchday 13 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Birmingham beat Lincoln 3-1. August Priske opened the scoring in the 16th minute, then added a second in the 60th, assisted by Christoph·Klarer. Lincoln pulled one back three minutes later through Tom Bayliss, with Mikkel Ladefoged providing the assist. Alex Cochrane restored Birmingham’s two-goal lead in the 73rd minute, assisted by Ryan Allsop. There were no red cards.

Lincoln had more possession, 54% to Birmingham’s 46%, but Birmingham recorded more shots (17 to 12) and shots on target (7 to 6). The sides had the same number of corners, three each. Birmingham’s A. Priske was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.9. The 1-3 result was more decisive than the pre-match model’s 0-1 prediction, which gave Birmingham a 40% chance of winning, Lincoln 32%, and a draw 28%.

Goals

16'August Priske · Birmingham
60'August Priske · Christoph·Klarer · Birmingham
63'Tom Bayliss · Mikkel Ladefoged · Lincoln
73'Alex Cochrane · Ryan Allsop · Birmingham

Cards

25'Mikkel Ladefoged · Lincoln
27'Liam Millar · Birmingham
32'Ethan Laird · Birmingham
42'Dom Jefferies · Lincoln
89'Yunus Konak · Lincoln

Match stats

LincolnBirmingham

54%Possession46%

12Shots17

6Shots on target7

1.63Expected goals (xG)2.09

3Corners3

14Fouls9

4Offsides2

2Saves5

⭐ Top-rated player: A. Priske (Birmingham) 8.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Lincoln · 4-2-3-1

1G. WickensG
4A. CoubișD
25D. ElereweD
15S. BradleyD
3A. ReachD
26Y. KonakM
24I. VarfolomeevM
7R. HackettM
16D. JefferiesM
18B. HouseM
11M. LadefogedF

Coach: Chris Cohen

Birmingham · 4-2-3-1

1J. BeadleG
2E. LairdD
5P. NeumannD
4C. KlarerD
20A. CochraneD
24T. IwataM
14J. SolisM
16P. RobertsM
28J. StansfieldM
17L. MillarM
9A. PriskeF

Coach: C. Davies

Match facts

Recent form

LincolnLLLDW

BirminghamDWWWL

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Lincoln	1.1	1.7
Birmingham	1.7	1.0

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
7	Birmingham	12	+8	20
15	Lincoln	12	-7	15

Last meetings

2025Birmingham1-0Lincoln
2025Birmingham2-1Lincoln
2024Lincoln1-3Birmingham

Absences

Lincoln

OutT. Darikwa · Knee Injury
OutM. Melia · Thigh Injury
OutE. Wheatley · Inactive

Birmingham

OutM. Leonard · Achilles Tendon Injury
OutPaik Seung-Ho · Health problems

PreviaXI model

Lincoln32%Draw28%Birmingham40%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.18 – 1.36
Double chance: 12 · 72%1X 60% · X2 68%
Over 2.5 goals: 47%Over 1.5: 73% · Over 3.5: 25%
Both teams score: 52%
Clean sheet: 26% – 31%Lincoln–Birmingham
Half-time result: X · 43%1 26% · 2 31%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 24%1/1 18% · X/X 17%
Expected corners: 10.43.6 – 6.8 · Over 9.5: 58%
Expected cards: 4.22.0 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 61%
Most likely scores: 1-113%
0-110%
1-29%
0-09%
1-09%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Lincoln need to break the pattern

Birmingham have won all three of their most recent meetings with Lincoln, making the visitors’ unbeaten record in this matchup the clearest thread ahead of Saturday’s Championship meeting. They have beaten Lincoln 3-1 away and recorded two home victories, 1-0 in the league and 2-1 in the FA Cup.

The backdrop favours Birmingham, too. They sit seventh on 20 points after 12 matches, while Lincoln are 15th with 15. A win would strengthen Birmingham’s position in the upper part of the table; Lincoln have the chance to close the gap and halt a difficult spell.

Recent form points to the visitors

Birmingham have taken 10 points from their last five matches, scoring 10 goals and conceding three. Their season record stands at five wins, five draws and two defeats, and they have lost only twice in 12 league games.

Lincoln’s last five have brought seven goals but 14 conceded. Their season record is four wins, three draws and five losses, with 20 goals against. The contrast is especially sharp at Sincil Bank: Lincoln have conceded 13 times in six home games, while Birmingham have won three of their six away matches.

Three meetings, three Birmingham wins

The recent head-to-head sequence is short but decisive. Birmingham edged Lincoln 1-0 in March 2025, won 2-1 in the FA Cup in January, and took a 3-1 league victory at Lincoln in October 2024. The hosts have yet to find a way past them in those meetings.

Absences on both sides

Lincoln will be without T. Darikwa, listed with a knee injury, and M. Melia, who has a thigh injury. E. Wheatley is also listed as inactive. Birmingham are missing M. Leonard with an Achilles tendon injury and Paik Seung-Ho due to health problems.

A defensive test for Lincoln

Birmingham’s recent return of just three goals conceded in five matches gives them a solid platform, while their 20 goals across the season underline their attacking threat. Lincoln have scored in their recent run, but must tighten up after conceding 14 times in five games.

Our prediction

Lincoln’s home struggles and Birmingham’s stronger recent form point towards another difficult afternoon for the hosts. PreviaXI’s model favours the visitors, whose more reliable defence and greater attacking output make a narrow win the likeliest outcome.

Lincoln 0-1 Birmingham

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