Liga MX · Apertura - 15 
Our pick1–0Correct result
Atlante FC chase a standings lift against Guadalajara Chivas
Atlante FC head to Guadalajara looking to improve on 16th place in the Liga MX Apertura. Third-placed Chivas have the stronger season record and home advantage.
📍 Estadio Akron
Preview written:
All Apertura, matchday 15 matches
Match report
Guadalajara Chivas beat Atlante FC 4-2. Santiago Sandoval opened the scoring in the eighth minute, assisted by Luis Romo, before an own goal by Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar made it 2-0 in the 36th. Sandoval scored again in the 53rd, with Efrain Alvarez providing the assist. Martín Sarrafiore pulled one back for Atlante FC in the 60th, but Efrain Alvarez restored the three-goal lead four minutes later, assisted by Omar Govea. Jhojan Julio converted a penalty in the 83rd to complete the scoring.
Guadalajara Chivas had 53% possession and led 15-8 in total shots and 7-4 in shots on target. The xG figures were close, at 1.64 to 1.61. Sandoval was the top-rated player, with a 9.3 rating. The 4-2 result was more goal-heavy than the pre-match model’s 1-0 prediction, which gave Guadalajara Chivas a 59% chance of winning, a 25% chance of a draw and Atlante FC a 16% chance of winning.
Goals
- 8'Santiago Sandoval · Luis Romo · Guadalajara Chivas
- 36'Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar (o.g.) · Guadalajara Chivas
- 53'Santiago Sandoval · Efrain Alvarez · Guadalajara Chivas
- 60'Martín Sarrafiore · Atlante FC
- 64'Efrain Alvarez · Omar Govea · Guadalajara Chivas
- 83'Jhojan Julio (pen.) · Atlante FC
Cards
- 28'Diogo Osmar Bagüí Tobar · Atlante FC
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Santiago Sandoval (Guadalajara Chivas) 9.3
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Guadalajara Chivas · 3-4-2-1
- 1J. RangelG
- 23D. AguirreD
- 3D. CampilloD
- 7L. RomoD
- 37R. LedezmaM
- 28R. GonzálezM
- 6O. GoveaM
- 5B. GonzálezM
- 25R. AlvaradoM
- 10E. ÁlvarezM
- 30Santiago SandovalF
Coach: G. Milito
Atlante FC · 5-3-2
- 1Ó. JiménezG
- 29Walter PortalesD
- 6J. N. CarreraD
- 32D. BagüíD
- 44A. QuirozD
- 25M. FernándezD
- 8E. PizzutoM
- 30M. SarrafioreM
- 19L. CalzadillaM
- 11Joaquin Alejandro Moxica ChapaF
- 7J. JulioF
Coach: Miguel Herrera
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Guadalajara Chivas | 1.5 | 0.9 |
| Atlante FC | 1.0 | 1.4 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Guadalajara Chivas | 14 | +9 | 26 |
| 16 | Atlante FC | 14 | -6 | 14 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 1-0
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.76 – 0.82
- Double chance
- 1X · 84%12 75% · X2 41%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 48%Over 1.5: 74% · Over 3.5: 26%
- Both teams score
- 47%
- Clean sheet
- 44% – 17%Guadalajara Chivas–Atlante FC
- Half-time result
- 1 · 43%X 42% · 2 15%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 37%X/1 19% · X/X 16%
- Expected corners
- 11.37.5 – 3.8 · Over 9.5: 67%
- Expected cards
- 3.91.6 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 54%
- Most likely scores
- 1-012%
- 1-112%
- 2-012%
- 2-110%
- 0-08%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A chance to climb
Atlante FC need a result at Estadio Akron to begin climbing from 16th in the Liga MX Apertura, while Guadalajara Chivas can defend their place in third. After 14 matches, Atlante have 14 points and a goal difference of -6; Chivas have 26 points and a +9 goal difference. The gap makes this a demanding test for the visitors, but a chance to make progress.
Chivas bring the steadier record
Chivas have won seven of their 14 league matches, drawing five and losing twice. Their home record is four wins, one draw and two defeats, and they have scored 11 times at home. They have conceded 12 goals across the season and kept six clean sheets.
Atlante have three wins, five draws and six defeats. Their last five matches produced six goals for and seven against, compared with four scored and four conceded by Chivas over the same span. Atlante have scored 14 goals in the campaign, but have conceded 20.
No recent meeting to draw on
There is no recent head-to-head record to frame this fixture, leaving the teams’ contrasting league campaigns as the clearest guide. Chivas arrive from third with 26 points; Atlante’s immediate focus is finding a result that can help them move up from 16th.
No reported absences
Neither side has a listed absence, so there is no confirmed team-news issue to shape the preview.
The defensive contrast
Chivas’ six clean sheets stand out against Atlante’s two. That difference is especially relevant for a visiting side that has conceded seven times in its last five matches. Atlante have still scored six in that run, so their task is to carry that threat into a game where Chivas’ home record offers the hosts a solid base.
Our prediction
Chivas’ stronger season, better defensive record and home advantage point towards a narrow home win. PreviaXI’s model also favours the hosts, with the clearest route coming through their ability to create more and limit Atlante’s chances. Guadalajara Chivas 1-0 Atlante FC
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