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Our pick0–1Missed

Pachuca and Tigres chase a crucial edge in Liga MX

Just one point separates Pachuca and Tigres after 14 matches, with both looking to gain ground in the Apertura. Tigres arrive in better recent form, while Pachuca’s home record offers a possible route to a turnaround.

📍 Estadio Hidalgo

Preview written: Sat 31 Oct 00:34

All Apertura, matchday 15 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

CF Pachuca beat Tigres UANL 3-0 in Liga MX. Salomón Rondón opened the scoring in the 42nd minute, then added a second in the 53rd, assisted by Oussama Idrissi. Robert Nunes made it 3-0 in the 69th minute, also with Idrissi providing the assist. Tigres UANL were reduced to ten men when Alan Franco was sent off in the 80th minute.

CF Pachuca had the greater attacking output, recording 21 shots to Tigres UANL’s 10 and seven shots on target to two. Their expected goals were 2.74 against 0.45, while possession was 61% to 39%. S. Rondón was the top-rated player, with a rating of 8.7. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 0-1 prediction, which gave Tigres UANL a 38% chance of winning, compared with 31% for a draw and 31% for CF Pachuca.

Goals

42'Salomón Rondón · CF Pachuca
53'Salomón Rondón · Oussama Idrissi · CF Pachuca
69'Robert Nunes · Oussama Idrissi · CF Pachuca

Cards

68'Rafael Guerrero · Tigres UANL
80'Alan Franco · Tigres UANL
89'Rodolfo Pizarro · CF Pachuca
90+4'Sebastian Santos · CF Pachuca

Match stats

CF PachucaTigres UANL

61%Possession39%

21Shots10

7Shots on target2

2.74Expected goals (xG)0.45

4Corners4

17Fouls6

1Offsides0

2Saves4

⭐ Top-rated player: S. Rondón (CF Pachuca) 8.7

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

CF Pachuca · 4-2-3-1

25C. MorenoG
13J. BerlangaD
4Eduardo BauermannD
2S. BarretoD
15F. VenegasD
16C. RiveraM
26Alán Ernesto Bautista GutiérrezM
21N. VallejoM
7R. PizarroM
11O. IdrissiM
23S. RondónF

Coach: B. Mora

Tigres UANL · 4-2-3-1

1N. GuzmánG
14J. GarzaD
33R. GuerreroD
15A. FrancoD
19M. LaínezD
8F. GorriaránM
9E. GómezM
16D. LainezM
11J. BrunettaM
30D. SánchezM
22G. MartínezF

Coach: M. Vucetich

Match facts

Recent form

CF PachucaLDLLW

Tigres UANLWWDLD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
CF Pachuca	1.6	1.4
Tigres UANL	1.1	1.4

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
13	CF Pachuca	14	+3	16
15	Tigres UANL	14	-4	15

Last meetings

2026Tigres UANL1-2CF Pachuca
2025CF Pachuca1-2Tigres UANL
2025CF Pachuca0-0Tigres UANL
2024Tigres UANL2-1CF Pachuca
2024Tigres UANL1-0CF Pachuca

PreviaXI model

CF Pachuca31%Draw31%Tigres UANL38%

Model confidence: Open game

Predicted score: 0-1
Expected goals (model): 1.04 – 1.19
Double chance: 12 · 69%1X 62% · X2 69%
Over 2.5 goals: 38%Over 1.5: 66% · Over 3.5: 19%
Both teams score: 46%
Clean sheet: 31% – 35%CF Pachuca–Tigres UANL
Half-time result: X · 47%1 24% · 2 29%
Half-time / full-time: 2/2 · 22%X/X 21% · 1/1 17%
Expected corners: 9.24.4 – 4.8 · Over 9.5: 43%
Expected cards: 6.23.4 – 2.8 · Over 3.5: 83%
Most likely scores: 1-114%
0-012%
0-112%
1-010%
1-28%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

One point, one big opportunity

CF Pachuca sit 13th in the Liga MX Apertura with 16 points from 14 matches; Tigres UANL are 15th, only a point behind. With both sides seeking a decisive edge in a tightly packed part of the standings, the meeting at Estadio Hidalgo could shift the balance between them.

Pachuca have the stronger goal difference, at +3 compared with Tigres’ -4, but their home results have been a concern: they are winless in six league games at Estadio Hidalgo, drawing three and losing three. Tigres, meanwhile, have not won in eight away league matches, recording four draws and four defeats. Each team has a clear weakness to overcome.

Tigres arrive with the better rhythm

The recent trend favours the visitors. Tigres have won two of their last five and lost once, while Pachuca have two wins, two defeats and a draw in that span. Tigres have also conceded six goals across those five matches, compared with nine for Pachuca.

Pachuca’s 22 goals across the season show they have scored more freely overall than Tigres, who have 15. But the hosts have conceded 13 times in six home games, and their recent defensive record will need to improve if they are to make their attacking advantage count.

Recent meetings lean Tigres’ way

The last five encounters include three Tigres victories, one Pachuca win and a draw. Pachuca did take a 2-1 away win in February, but Tigres won 2-1 at Estadio Hidalgo in October 2025. The recent record gives the visitors reason for confidence, though the latest result between the sides shows Pachuca can trouble them.

Players to watch

The numbers point to a contest between Pachuca’s greater season-long scoring output and Tigres’ more assured recent defending. Pachuca have scored seven times in their last five, but also conceded nine; Tigres have scored six and let in six over the same stretch. The side that better protects its defensive line may find the decisive moment.

Our prediction

Pachuca’s home struggles are difficult to ignore, while Tigres come in with the stronger recent form and a modest advantage in the recent head-to-head record. PreviaXI’s model gives the visitors a narrow edge in what looks set to be a close, low-scoring match.

CF Pachuca 0-1 Tigres UANL

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