Copa del Rey · Round of 128 
Our pick0–1
Ourense's fragile away run meets Torrelavega's lower-league test in Copa del Rey opener
UD Ourense travel in search of a marginal advantage as the Primera División RFEF side faces Segunda División RFEF outfit Gimnástica Torrelavega in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. The tie pits Ourense's slightly stronger expected attack against Torrelavega's home role as underdogs.
Preview written:
Match report
Gimnástica Torrelavega beat UD Ourense 3-1 after extra time in the Copa del Rey. J. L. Friaza opened the scoring for the home side in the 10th minute. UD Ourense were reduced to ten men when Varo was sent off in the 47th minute, then to nine after D. Ferreiro received a red card in the 88th. J. Labrada equalised for UD Ourense in the 90+3 minute, taking the match into extra time. M. Sazatornil restored Gimnástica Torrelavega’s lead in the 96th minute, and A. Gomez added a third in the 115th.
No match statistics or top-rated player were provided. The result differed from the pre-match model’s 0-1 prediction, which gave Gimnástica Torrelavega a 29% chance of winning, a draw 28%, and UD Ourense a 43% chance.
Goals
- 10'J. L. Friaza · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 90+3'J. Labrada · UD Ourense
- 96'M. Sazatornil · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 115'A. Gomez · Gimnástica Torrelavega
Cards
- 5'M. Gonzalez · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 24'Varo · UD Ourense
- 40'D. Ferreiro · UD Ourense
- 47'Varo · UD Ourense
- 62'J. Cobo Pena · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 72'M. Gandara · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 88'D. Ferreiro · UD Ourense
- 88'D. Ferreiro · UD Ourense
- 89'B. Ademan · Gimnástica Torrelavega
- 90+1'P. Bassa · Gimnástica Torrelavega
Match facts
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| UD Ourense | 0.0 | 0.0 |
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Predicted score
- 0-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.08 – 1.38
- Double chance
- 12 · 72%1X 57% · X2 71%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%Over 1.5: 71% · Over 3.5: 23%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 25% – 34%Gimnástica Torrelavega–UD Ourense
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 24% · 2 32%
- Half-time / full-time
- 2/2 · 26%X/X 18% · 1/1 16%
- Expected corners
- 9.65.3 – 4.3 · Over 9.5: 49%
- Expected cards
- 4.11.9 – 2.2 · Over 3.5: 58%
- Most likely scores
- 1-113%
- 0-111%
- 0-09%
- 1-29%
- 1-09%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Ourense arrive with pressure to convert chances
UD Ourense head into this Copa del Rey tie coming off a mixed domestic start but clearly carrying the weight of needing results. Positioned in Primera División RFEF - Group 1, Ourense sit low in their table and have managed five points from nine matches; their recent league form reads LLWDD. In knockout football they will want to avoid an early exit against lower-league opposition.
What the tie means for Torrelavega
Gimnástica Torrelavega are the underdogs from Segunda División RFEF - Group 1, with five points from eight games and a home task to upset a higher-tier opponent. As a club from a lower division, this fixture is an opportunity to use familiar surroundings and the Copa’s one-off nature to challenge Ourense.
Recent rhythm and tendencies
Neither side enters the game with a long run of matches in this dataset, but domestic form strings give a snapshot: Torrelavega’s league campaign has produced a sequence of results leaving them near the bottom, while Ourense have steadied slightly with a win and two draws in their last five. That fragile improvement suggests Ourense create enough to threaten, but remain vulnerable defensively.
Key contrast: chance creation versus league level
PreviaXI’s model projects Ourense to edge the tie. Expected-goals estimates give Ourense the slimmer attacking advantage (1.38 expected goals to Torrelavega’s 1.08), underlining the core contrast: a higher-tier side that can craft more opportunities against a lower-division team likely to rely on organisation and home familiarity. The model also indicates the game will probably be tight rather than high-scoring.
Our prediction
This looks like a narrow, away-leaning cup game where Ourense’s superior chance creation should be decisive but not overwhelming. Expect a close match and a single-goal margin for the visitors.
Gimnástica Torrelavega 0-1 UD Ourense
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