Can Midtjylland Upset Ajax on Home Turf?

The last meeting between these sides ended in a 3-1 Ajax win over FC Midtjylland in the Champions League in November 2020. Now they meet again in the Conference League, with Ajax the more established favourite on paper—but Midtjylland have reasons to believe they can make this a difficult night in Herning.

Ajax have the table edge, Midtjylland the home test

After two matches, Ajax are 13th of 36 with three points, while Midtjylland sit 25th on one. The Dutch side are twelve places and two points ahead, but the gap is small enough for a strong home result to shift the picture.

Midtjylland have won two of their three home matches in this competition, scoring five goals and conceding three. Ajax’s away record here is also mixed: two wins, a draw and a defeat in four matches, with 11 goals scored and seven conceded.

Both arrive with attacking momentum

In their last five Conference League matches, both teams have three wins, a draw and a defeat. Midtjylland scored 10 and conceded five across that run; Ajax scored 14 but let in nine.

The competition-only records underline the contrast: Midtjylland have four wins, a draw and a defeat across six Conference League matches, while Ajax have six wins, a draw and a defeat from eight. Midtjylland’s latest outing was a defeat, whereas Ajax’s most recent match was a win.

Ajax own the previous meetings

Ajax won both of the sides’ two previous meetings, with no draws and no Midtjylland victories. Both matches produced more than two goals, including the most recent 3-1 result. That history favours Ajax, though it dates back to 2020.

The key battle: Midtjylland’s home attack

Midtjylland’s five goals in three home Conference League matches give them a platform to trouble Ajax, particularly against an away defence that has conceded seven in four competition matches and kept no clean sheets on the road. Ajax, meanwhile, have scored 11 away goals in this competition, so Midtjylland will need to manage the visitors’ threat as well as press their own advantage.

Our prediction

Ajax have the stronger historical record and sit higher in the table, but Midtjylland’s home results and the model’s slight lean towards the hosts point to a narrow Danish win. Both sides’ recent scoring and conceding numbers suggest chances at both ends.

FC Midtjylland 2-1 Ajax