Serie A · Matchday 34 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Cruzeiro vs Bahia: Top-three Cruzeiro put qualification hopes on the line
Cruzeiro arrive on a three-match winning streak and sit third, four points ahead of sixth-placed Bahia. A home victory would strengthen their position in the qualification race.
📍 Estádio Mineirão
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Cruzeiro 3-2 Bahia.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 22–13; Shots on target: 8–5; Corners: 5–7; Expected goals: 3.52–0.72.
Goals
- 32' C. Olivera · Rodrigo · Bahia
- 45+2' Kaio Jorge · K. Arroyo · Cruzeiro
- 69' Bruno Rodrigues · K. Arroyo · Cruzeiro
- 86' Kaio Jorge · L. Romero · Cruzeiro
- 90+5' A. Veliz · Luciano Juba · Bahia
Cards
- 19' Nicolas Acevedo · Bahia
- 69' Caio Alexandre · Bahia
- 70' Bruno Rodrigues · Cruzeiro
- 76' Jonathan Jesus · Cruzeiro
- 90+8' Kaua Moraes · Cruzeiro
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Kaio Jorge (Cruzeiro) 9.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Cruzeiro · 4-2-3-1
- 81Otávio CostaG
- 23FagnerD
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 34Jonathan JesusD
- 27Gabriel RojasD
- 29Lucas RomeroM
- 5Zé LucasM
- 99Keny ArroyoM
- 9Bruno RodriguesM
- 8GersonM
- 19Kaio JorgeF
Bahia · 4-3-3
- 1RonaldoG
- 44Marcos VictorD
- 33David DuarteD
- 4KanuD
- 46Luciano JubaD
- 14ErickM
- 5Nicolás AcevedoM
- 11Rodrigo NestorM
- 99Cristian OliveraF
- 9Alejo VélizF
- 10Everton RibeiroF
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 1.6 | 1.4 |
| Bahia | 1.5 | 1.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Cruzeiro | 33 | +6 | 57 |
| 6 | Bahia | 33 | +6 | 53 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro
- 2025 Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro
- 2025 Cruzeiro 3-0 Bahia
- 2024 Cruzeiro 1-1 Bahia
- 2024 Bahia 4-1 Cruzeiro
Absences
Cruzeiro
- Out Felipe Morais · Muscle Injury
- Out Gabriel Pec · Broken Leg
- Out Matheus Pereira · Yellow Cards
- Out L. Sinisterra · Muscle Injury
- Out L. Villalba · Yellow Cards
- Out William Furtado · Yellow Cards
- Doubtful Joao Marcelo · Injury
Bahia
- Out Leo Vieira · Knee Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.69 – 1.07
- Double chance
- 1X · 76%12 75% · X2 49%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%Over 1.5: 77% · Over 3.5: 30%
- Both teams score
- 54%
- Clean sheet
- 34% – 18%Cruzeiro–Bahia
- Half-time result
- X · 41%1 38% · 2 21%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 32%X/1 17% · X/X 15%
- Expected corners
- 11.26.8 – 4.4 · Over 9.5: 66%
- Expected cards
- 5.52.8 – 2.7 · Over 3.5: 79%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A top-six race with little room to slip
Cruzeiro’s three consecutive league wins have helped them reach third place, and they meet Bahia with four points between the sides after 33 matches. Bahia are sixth, so the visitors have a chance to close the gap, while Cruzeiro can reinforce their hold on a top-three position. Both teams have won their most recent league match.
Cruzeiro’s momentum, Bahia’s mixed run
Cruzeiro have won four of their last five league games, losing the other, and scored 10 goals in that spell. Their home record adds weight to their case: nine wins, four draws and three defeats from 16 matches, with 27 goals scored and 16 conceded.
Bahia’s last five league outings have brought two wins, a draw and two defeats. They scored five and conceded seven across that run. Away from home, they have six wins, five draws and five defeats, with 22 goals scored and 23 conceded in 16 matches.
Recent meetings favour Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro have won three of the last five meetings, with Bahia winning once and one match drawn. The latest encounter, in May, ended Bahia 1-2 Cruzeiro. Only one of those five games had two goals or fewer.
Suspensions and injuries
Cruzeiro will be without Felipe Morais and L. Sinisterra through muscle injuries, Gabriel Pec with a broken leg, and Matheus Pereira, L. Villalba and William Furtado through suspensions. Joao Marcelo is questionable with an injury.
Bahia are without Leo Vieira because of a knee injury.
Home firepower to watch
Cruzeiro have scored 27 goals in 16 home league matches, compared with Bahia’s 22 in 16 away games. That attacking edge, alongside Cruzeiro’s stronger recent run and home record, could prove decisive in a match with important consequences for the standings.
Our prediction
The numbers favour Cruzeiro: they have been more productive at home and arrive in better form, while Bahia’s away record is evenly split between wins and defeats. PreviaXI’s model also favours the home side, pointing towards a narrow victory.
Cruzeiro 1-0 Bahia
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Serie A table All previews that day
More Serie A previews
Serie A 
Palmeiras 
Remo Our pick Home win Correct result
Remo arrive looking to improve their position, but face a Palmeiras side unbeaten in ten and with 12 home wins in 16 league matches. Their May meeting ended 1-1.
Read preview Serie A 
Botafogo 
Atletico-MG Our pick Home win Correct result
Four of the last five meetings between Botafogo and Atletico-MG produced two goals or fewer. Their latest encounter ended 1-1, with both teams now looking to respond after consecutive league defeats.
Read preview Serie A 
Sao Paulo 
Corinthians Our pick Home win Missed
Sao Paulo’s strong home record contrasts with Corinthians’ difficult away form and recent defensive struggles. But Corinthians won the latest meeting 3-2, adding an edge to this São Paulo derby.
Read preview Serie A 
Atletico Paranaense 
Vasco DA Gama Our pick Home win Missed
Fifth-placed Atletico Paranaense have a significant league advantage over 13th-placed Vasco DA Gama, but both arrive after defeats. Vasco’s recent head-to-head record offers a reason to believe they can make this a contest.
Read preview