Serie A · Matchday 34 
Our pick Home win Correct result
Botafogo and Atletico-MG renew a tight rivalry
Four of the last five meetings between Botafogo and Atletico-MG produced two goals or fewer. Their latest encounter ended 1-1, with both teams now looking to respond after consecutive league defeats.
📍 Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 13–13; Shots on target: 3–3; Corners: 4–4; Expected goals: 1.6–0.34.
Goals
- 19' Edenilson · Vitinho · Botafogo
Cards
- 14' C. Medina · Botafogo
- 47' T. Perez · Atletico-MG
- 75' Marcal · Botafogo
- 77' K. Pascini · Atletico-MG
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Gustavo Scarpa (Atletico-MG) 8.3
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Botafogo · 4-4-2
- 12Gabriel BatistaG
- 2VitinhoD
- 34Gabriel JustinoD
- 5Nahuel FerraresiD
- 21MarçalD
- 6Cristian MedinaM
- 88EdenilsonM
- 75HuguinhoM
- 29PaulinhoM
- 90Danilo PereiraF
- 9Tiquinho SoaresF
Atletico-MG · 4-2-3-1
- 22EversonG
- 23Ángelo PreciadoD
- 40VitãoD
- 3Léo DuarteD
- 36Kauã PasciniD
- 25Tomás PérezM
- 39Mamady CisséM
- 92DuduM
- 5AlexsanderM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 29Cauã Campos SoaresF
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Botafogo | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Atletico-MG | 1.3 | 1.2 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 | Atletico-MG | 33 | +5 | 50 |
| 12 | Botafogo | 33 | -8 | 39 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Atletico-MG 1-1 Botafogo
- 2025 Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG
- 2025 Atletico-MG 1-0 Botafogo
- 2024 Atletico-MG 1-3 Botafogo
- 2024 Atletico-MG 0-0 Botafogo
Absences
Botafogo
- Out J. Barrera · Ankle Injury
- Out Danilo Santos · Injury
- Out Kaio Pantaleao · Knee Injury
- Doubtful Arthur Chaves · Inactive
Atletico-MG
- Out T. Borbas · Muscle Injury
- Out M. Cassierra · Muscle Injury
- Out Fred · Muscle Injury
- Out Reinier · Injury
- Out Ruan Tressoldi · Muscle Injury
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.47 – 1.01
- Double chance
- 1X · 75%12 72% · X2 53%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 45%Over 1.5: 72% · Over 3.5: 24%
- Both teams score
- 50%
- Clean sheet
- 36% – 23%Botafogo–Atletico-MG
- Half-time result
- X · 44%1 35% · 2 21%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 28%X/X 18% · X/1 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.55.9 – 4.6 · Over 9.5: 59%
- Expected cards
- 4.42.3 – 2.1 · Over 3.5: 64%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A narrow gap in the table
Atletico-MG are five places and eleven points above Botafogo, sitting seventh on 50 points while their hosts are 12th with 39. With both sides coming off two consecutive defeats, the meeting at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos offers each a chance to halt that slide.
Both need a response
Botafogo have scored four goals and conceded eight across their last five league matches, a run of one win, one draw and three defeats. They have lost their last two, and their home record offers some encouragement: six wins and six draws in 16 matches, with only four defeats.
Atletico-MG have also lost their last two. Their last five league outings brought two wins, a draw and two defeats, with seven goals scored and seven conceded. They have been less convincing away than at home, recording four wins, three draws and nine defeats on the road.
Recent meetings favour restraint
The recent history points towards another close contest. Four of the last five meetings produced two goals or fewer, while Botafogo have two wins in that sequence, Atletico-MG one and two games ended level.
The latest meeting, in May, finished 1-1 at Atletico-MG. Before that, Botafogo won 1-0 at home in September 2025, while Atletico-MG took a 1-0 victory in April. Those results underline how little has separated the sides in their league clashes.
Absences on both sides
Botafogo are without J. Barrera, Danilo Santos and Kaio Pantaleao, while Arthur Chaves is questionable. Atletico-MG have five players listed as unavailable: T. Borbas, M. Cassierra, Fred, Reinier and Ruan Tressoldi.
The home edge may matter
Botafogo’s stronger numbers at home could be important in a matchup usually settled by fine margins. They have scored 26 goals and conceded 22 in 16 home league games. Atletico-MG have conceded 21 and scored 17 in 16 away matches, a record that suggests they may find chances harder to come by in Rio.
Our prediction
The recent meetings point to a low-scoring game, and both teams arrive after back-to-back defeats. Botafogo’s home record gives them a slight edge, while the likely pattern of a tight contest makes a narrow home win the call.
Botafogo 1-0 Atletico-MG
⚑ Report a mistakeEditorial policy
Serie A table All previews that day
More Serie A previews
Serie A 
Sao Paulo 
Corinthians Our pick Home win Missed
Sao Paulo’s strong home record contrasts with Corinthians’ difficult away form and recent defensive struggles. But Corinthians won the latest meeting 3-2, adding an edge to this São Paulo derby.
Read preview Serie A 
Atletico Paranaense 
Vasco DA Gama Our pick Home win Missed
Fifth-placed Atletico Paranaense have a significant league advantage over 13th-placed Vasco DA Gama, but both arrive after defeats. Vasco’s recent head-to-head record offers a reason to believe they can make this a contest.
Read preview Serie A 
Flamengo 
Gremio Our pick Home win Correct result
Serie A leaders Flamengo have won four in a row and are unbeaten in ten. Gremio arrive on a two-game winning run, but their away record presents a tougher challenge.
Read preview Serie A 
Palmeiras 
Remo Our pick Home win Correct result
Remo arrive looking to improve their position, but face a Palmeiras side unbeaten in ten and with 12 home wins in 16 league matches. Their May meeting ended 1-1.
Read preview