Serie A · Matchday 34 
Our pick Home win Missed
Sao Paulo’s home edge meets Corinthians’ fragile defence
Sao Paulo’s strong home record contrasts with Corinthians’ difficult away form and recent defensive struggles. But Corinthians won the latest meeting 3-2, adding an edge to this São Paulo derby.
📍 Estadio Do MorumBIS
Preview written:
Match report
Final result: Sao Paulo 0-0 Corinthians.
Match statistics (home team first). Shots: 19–18; Shots on target: 5–4; Corners: 6–8; Expected goals: 1.79–1.24.
Cards
- 31' M. Pereira · Corinthians
- 31' Djhordney · Sao Paulo
- 45+1' Andre Ramalho · Corinthians
- 52' P. Milans · Corinthians
- 60' Pedro Lima · Sao Paulo
- 61' Newton · Sao Paulo
- 67' M. Depay · Corinthians
- 67' Luciano · Sao Paulo
- 82' Yuri Alberto · Corinthians
- 89' Ferreira · Sao Paulo
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Rafael (Sao Paulo) 8.2
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Sao Paulo · 3-4-2-1
- 23RafaelG
- 28NewtonD
- 5Robert ArboledaD
- 2Rafael TolóiD
- 32Pedro LimaM
- 16Damián BobadillaM
- 48DjhordneyM
- 12Iago BorduchiM
- 37ArturF
- 7Lucas MouraF
- 10LucianoF
Corinthians · 4-2-3-1
- 1Hugo SouzaG
- 20Pedro MilansD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 26Fabrizio AngileriD
- 49André LuizM
- 21Matheus BiduM
- 37Kaio CésarM
- 8Rodrigo GarroM
- 7Breno BidonM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Sao Paulo | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Corinthians | 1.1 | 1.3 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Sao Paulo | 33 | 0 | 43 |
| 17 | Corinthians | 33 | -6 | 36 |
Last meetings
- 2026 Corinthians 3-2 Sao Paulo
- 2026 Corinthians 1-1 Sao Paulo
- 2025 Corinthians 3-1 Sao Paulo
- 2025 Sao Paulo 2-0 Corinthians
- 2025 Sao Paulo 3-1 Corinthians
Absences
Sao Paulo
- Out Artur · Back Injury
- Out N. Bosshardt · Knee Injury
- Out Buta · Knee Injury
- Out D. Duarte · Knee Injury
- Out Marcos Antonio · Ankle Injury
- Out Sabino · Yellow Cards
- Doubtful Ferreira · Injury
Corinthians
- Out M. Depay · Inactive
- Out Gabriel Paulista · Inactive
- Out Kayke · Knee Injury
- Out Z. Labyad · Knee Injury
- Out Matheuzinho · Yellow Cards
- Out Raniele · Inactive
- Doubtful Alex Santana · Inactive
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Open game
- Expected goals (model)
- 1.30 – 0.92
- Double chance
- 1X · 75%12 70% · X2 55%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 38%Over 1.5: 66% · Over 3.5: 18%
- Both teams score
- 44%
- Clean sheet
- 40% – 27%Sao Paulo–Corinthians
- Half-time result
- X · 47%1 32% · 2 21%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 26%X/X 20% · X/1 16%
- Expected corners
- 10.46.2 – 4.2 · Over 9.5: 58%
- Expected cards
- 5.82.8 – 3.0 · Over 3.5: 83%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
Home strength against away vulnerability
The latest meeting between these rivals ended in a 3-2 Corinthians victory in May, a five-goal contest that gives the visitors a recent result to draw on. The league positions, however, point to a different kind of challenge: Sao Paulo are 10th with 43 points, seven places and seven points above 17th-placed Corinthians after 33 matches.
The contrast is clearest at home and away. Sao Paulo have won ten, drawn three and lost three of their 16 league games at home, conceding just 13 goals. Corinthians, by comparison, have three wins, five draws and eight defeats in 16 away matches, with 25 goals conceded. Sao Paulo’s home solidity meets a Corinthians side that has struggled to protect its goal on the road.
Form: Corinthians arrive off a win
Sao Paulo’s most recent league match was a defeat. Across their last five, they have two wins, a draw and two defeats, scoring six and conceding seven. Corinthians come off a win, but their last five have brought one win, a draw and three defeats; they have scored seven and conceded ten.
That recent defensive record is a concern for the visitors, while Sao Paulo’s home record offers a firmer foundation. Yet the hosts have not been consistently dominant lately, and the derby’s latest meeting shows Corinthians can punish them.
A finely balanced recent rivalry
Across the last five meetings in all competitions, both sides have won twice, with one draw. The most recent was that 3-2 Corinthians success in Serie A; two of the five encounters had two goals or fewer, so the head-to-head picture offers both high-scoring and tighter precedents.
Absences could shape the derby
Sao Paulo are without Artur, N. Bosshardt, Buta, D. Duarte and Marcos Antonio through injury, while Sabino is unavailable through yellow-card suspension. Ferreira is questionable.
Corinthians are without M. Depay, Gabriel Paulista, Kayke, Z. Labyad, Matheuzinho and Raniele. Alex Santana is questionable.
The home defence is the key
Sao Paulo’s six clean sheets in 16 home league matches underline the strength they can bring to this fixture. Corinthians have conceded 25 times in 16 away games and let in ten goals across their last five league matches. If Sao Paulo can make their home defensive discipline count, they have a route to control a match between two sides with uneven recent form.
Our prediction
Sao Paulo’s strong home record and Corinthians’ away defensive problems tilt the balance towards the hosts, even though the visitors won the latest derby. A more controlled home performance looks likelier than another five-goal contest.
Sao Paulo 1-0 Corinthians
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