2–1 Full time Monday 2 November

Our pick2–0Correct result

Cruz Azul’s winning run faces a Leon test

Cruz Azul have won their last three matches and scored 16 goals across their past five. Leon arrive sixth, but the hosts’ recent attacking form gives them a chance to extend their run.

📍 Estadio Banorte

Preview written: Sun 1 Nov 02:19

All Apertura, matchday 15 matches Full head-to-head

Match report

Cruz Azul beat Leon 2-1. Andrés Montaño opened the scoring from the penalty spot in the 56th minute, then José Paradela doubled the lead in the 72nd minute, assisted by Nicolás Ibañez. Leon pulled one back through Jose Alvarado’s penalty in the 90+10th minute, but Cruz Azul held on for the win. There were no red cards.

The match numbers were close: Leon had more possession, 52% to 48%, and a higher expected-goals figure, 2.2 to Cruz Azul’s 1.56. Cruz Azul registered five shots on target to Leon’s four. A. Montaño was the top-rated player, with a 7.6 rating. The result matched the model’s predicted 2-0 Cruz Azul win, although the actual margin was narrower and Leon scored; the model had assigned Cruz Azul a 64% win chance, a 21% draw chance and a 15% chance of a Leon win.

Goals

56'Andrés Montaño (pen.) · Cruz Azul
72'José Paradela · Nicolás Ibañez · Cruz Azul
90+10'Jose Alvarado (pen.) · Leon

Cards

33'Gabriel Fernández · Cruz Azul
34'Jhohan Romana · Leon
45+7'Christopher Mora · Leon
55'Jose Rodriguez · Leon
55'Edgar Guerra · Leon
60'Jesús Orozco · Cruz Azul
79'Issac Alfredo Espinosa Salinas · Leon
85'Ángel Márquez · Cruz Azul
90+3'José Paradela · Cruz Azul

Match stats

Cruz AzulLeon

48%Possession52%

15Shots16

5Shots on target4

1.56Expected goals (xG)2.20

4Corners6

16Fouls11

3Offsides3

3Saves3

⭐ Top-rated player: A. Montaño (Cruz Azul) 7.6

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Cruz Azul · 5-4-1

23K. MierG
55R. GonzalezD
17A. GarcíaD
33G. PioviD
5J. OrozcoD
3O. CamposD
8A. PalavecinoM
6É. LiraM
10A. MontañoM
19C. RodríguezM
21G. FernándezF

Coach: Joel Huiqui

Leon · 4-1-4-1

23Ó. GarcíaG
7I. MorenoD
14J. RomañaD
3Juan José Guevara PossuD
185C. MoraD
29J. RodríguezM
18E. GuerraM
20R. EcheverríaM
13D. ArcilaM
11I. DíazM
19J. AlvaradoF

Coach: J. Gandolfi

Match facts

Recent form

Cruz AzulDDWWW

LeonWDLWD

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Cruz Azul	2.3	1.6
Leon	1.5	1.3

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
3	Cruz Azul	14	+9	26
6	Leon	14	+3	22

Last meetings

2026Leon2-1Cruz Azul
2025Cruz Azul4-1Leon
2025Cruz Azul2-1Leon
2025Leon2-3Cruz Azul
2025Cruz Azul2-1Leon

PreviaXI model

Cruz Azul64%Draw21%Leon15%

Model confidence: Strong

Predicted score: 2-0
Expected goals (model): 2.09 – 0.92
Double chance: 1X · 85%12 79% · X2 36%
Over 2.5 goals: 58%Over 1.5: 81% · Over 3.5: 35%
Both teams score: 53%
Clean sheet: 40% – 12%Cruz Azul–Leon
Half-time result: 1 · 47%X 37% · 2 16%
Half-time / full-time: 1/1 · 42%X/1 19% · X/X 13%
Expected corners: 10.46.7 – 3.7 · Over 9.5: 58%
Expected cards: 4.72.2 – 2.5 · Over 3.5: 67%
Most likely scores: 2-011%
1-110%
2-110%
1-010%
3-08%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Cruz Azul set the pace

Cruz Azul have won three matches in a row, a surge that has lifted them to third in the Liga MX Apertura standings with 26 points from 14 games. They have a four-point cushion over sixth-placed Leon, who have played the same number of matches, making this a significant meeting near the top of the table.

The hosts’ winning streak has been accompanied by a striking return in front of goal: 16 goals across their last five matches. Leon, meanwhile, have 22 points and a three-point goal difference, compared with Cruz Azul’s nine.

Goals fuel the run

Cruz Azul’s overall record stands at eight wins, two draws and four defeats. They have scored 32 goals in 14 games, including 17 in seven home matches. Their recent five-game tally suggests their attack is gathering momentum, though they have also conceded eight goals over that span.

Leon have won two, drawn three and lost two of their seven away fixtures. They have scored eight goals on the road, and their last five matches brought nine goals for and eight against. Their recent results have been less forceful than Cruz Azul’s three straight wins, but Leon have avoided defeat in three of their last five.

Recent meetings favour Cruz Azul

The teams have traded wins in their latest encounters, but Cruz Azul have taken three of the last five meetings. Their most recent home clash ended in a 4-1 victory, while Leon won the latest meeting between the sides, 2-1 in January.

Attacking edge to watch

Cruz Azul’s 32 league goals are 11 more than Leon’s 21, and their home scoring record stands at 17 goals in seven games. Leon have been more restrained away from home, with eight goals in seven matches. That contrast puts the hosts’ attack at the centre of the contest, although Leon’s recent return of nine goals in five games suggests they can pose a threat.

Our prediction

Cruz Azul’s three-match winning run, stronger scoring record and home output make them the more convincing side. Leon have enough recent attacking form to make the hosts work, but the numbers favour Cruz Azul to control the game and keep their momentum going.

Cruz Azul 2-0 Leon

⚑ Report a mistake Editorial policy

Liga MX table All previews that day