Championship · Matchday 12 
Bolton vs Middlesbrough preview: Boro's grip on Bolton
Middlesbrough have won each of their last five meetings with Bolton, and they arrive in Horwich in third place to Bolton's 15th. Can the hosts finally break the pattern?
📍 Toughsheet Community Stadium
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| Scored | Conceded | |
|---|---|---|
| Bolton | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| Middlesbrough | 2.0 | 1.5 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Middlesbrough | 11 | +6 | 22 |
| 15 | Bolton | 11 | -3 | 14 |
Last meetings
- 2024Middlesbrough3-0Bolton
- 2023Bolton1-3Middlesbrough
- 2019Bolton0-2Middlesbrough
- 2018Middlesbrough2-0Bolton
- 2017Middlesbrough2-0Bolton
Absences
Bolton
- OutC. Forino-Joseph · Groin Injury
Middlesbrough
- OutA. Jones · Calf Injury
- OutR. Pukstas · Injury
- OutD. Strelec · Injury
PreviaXI model
- Most likely score
- 1-2
- Expected goals (xG)
- 1.17 – 1.61
- Over 2.5 goals
- 52%
- Both teams score
- 56%
- Expected corners
- 10.65.1 – 5.5 · Over 9.5: 61%
- Expected cards
- 3.31.7 – 1.6 · Over 3.5: 43%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only.How our model works →
A Friday night at the Toughsheet Community Stadium could tighten Middlesbrough’s grip on the Championship’s top three, and recent history suggests Bolton have never found a way to stop them.
Table pressure in Horwich
Middlesbrough sit third on 22 points from 11 matches, with a goal difference of +6. Bolton are 15th of 24 with 14 points and a goal difference of -3. For the hosts, a result here would be a welcome step away from the bottom half of the table. For Boro, it is another chance to keep pace with the leaders.
Form on both sides
Middlesbrough have been the more productive side lately, scoring 10 goals in their last five league games. They have not lost in that run, collecting two wins and three draws, and they have lost only once all season. Their away record is particularly strong, with six wins in 11 matches.
Bolton have won three of their last five and have scored nine times in that spell, conceding six. Their home form has been uneven, with two wins and three defeats from five matches on their own turf.
Head-to-head
Middlesbrough have won all five of the most recent meetings, a run that began with a 2-0 win in December 2017. The most recent was a 3-0 victory in a pre-season friendly in July 2024, and before that they beat Bolton 3-1 in the League Cup in August 2023.
The pattern is one-sided. Bolton have scored just once across those five games, while Middlesbrough have found the net 12 times. Bolton will need to change that to end the sequence.
Team news
Bolton will be without C. Forino-Joseph, who is sidelined with a groin injury. Middlesbrough have a longer list of absences, with A. Jones out through a calf problem and R. Pukstas and D. Strelec also missing through injury.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model favours Middlesbrough, and the football supports that view. Boro have scored 22 times this season and carry a sharper threat on the road, while Bolton have struggled to turn their home fixtures into consistent results. Expect a tight contest in which Bolton have their moments, but Middlesbrough’s attacking edge should prove decisive.
Bolton 1-2 Middlesbrough
Championship table All previews that day
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