AZ Alkmaar’s home resilience meets Groningen’s attacking firepower

A five-point gap to protect

AZ Alkmaar sit fifth in the Eredivisie on 20 points after 11 matches, five points and three places above eighth-placed Groningen. The hosts can strengthen their position, but their recent slump gives the visitors an opening to close the gap.

Home solidity versus Groningen’s goals

AZ’s contrast is sharp: they have lost only once in five league matches at home, scoring nine and conceding five, but have gone four league games without a win and lost their last two. Across their last five league matches, they scored just three goals and conceded seven.

Groningen offer a more potent attack, with 14 goals in their last five league matches, but have conceded 11 in that span. They have scored 13 goals in five away league games, while also letting in 10 and keeping no clean sheets on the road. They are winless in three league matches, and their most recent outing ended in defeat.

AZ have had the edge overall

AZ have won three of the last five meetings, with Groningen winning once and one match drawn. The most recent encounter, in March 2026, went Groningen’s way, 3-0; before that, AZ beat them 4-1 in Alkmaar.

Two attacks, different trade-offs

AZ’s home record suggests a sturdier platform, while Groningen’s recent scoring makes them dangerous even away from home. The key question is whether AZ can turn that home resilience into a response after consecutive defeats, or whether Groningen can make their attacking output count without leaving their own defensive gaps exposed.

Our prediction

AZ’s home defensive record gives them the stronger foundation, while Groningen’s goals should make this a competitive contest. PreviaXI’s model favours the hosts, with AZ’s attacking edge at home pointing to a narrow win.

AZ Alkmaar 2-1 Groningen