2–1 Full time Saturday 24 October

Our pick1–2Missed

Aston Villa vs Manchester City preview: can City's winning run roll on at Villa Park?

Manchester City arrive at Villa Park on five straight wins and top of the table. Aston Villa, 12th in the standings, must find a way to stop the leaders if they want to climb back into contention.

📍 Villa Park

All Matchday 8 matches

Match report

Aston Villa beat Manchester City 2-1 in Premier League Regular Season - 8. Nicolas Jackson opened the scoring in the 6th minute, assisted by John McGinn. Erling Haaland levelled for Manchester City in the 52nd minute, with Iliman Ndiaye providing the assist. Jackson scored again in the 60th minute, assisted by Ibrahim Mbaye, and Aston Villa held on to win.

The numbers favoured Manchester City, who had 63% possession, 15 shots to Aston Villa's 8, and 7 shots on target to 2. City's xG was 1.81 against 0.64 for Villa, and they won 7 corners to 4. Aston Villa goalkeeper saves were 6 to 0. The top-rated player was N. Jackson with 8.9. Before kickoff, the PreviaXI model had predicted a 1-2 scoreline and gave Manchester City a 48% probability of winning, against 26% for each of a draw and an Aston Villa win, so the result went against the pre-match view.

Goals

6'Nicolas Jackson · John McGinn · Aston Villa
52'Erling Haaland · Iliman Ndiaye · Manchester City
60'Nicolas Jackson · Ibrahim Mbaye · Aston Villa

Cards

32'Marc Guehi · Manchester City
38'Rayan Cherki · Manchester City
54'Johan Manzambi · Aston Villa
55'Matty Cash · Aston Villa
74'Elliot Anderson · Manchester City
76'Ryan McAidoo · Manchester City
83'Brian Madjo · Aston Villa
90+5'Emiliano Buendía · Aston Villa

Match stats

Aston VillaManchester City

37%Possession63%

8Shots15

2Shots on target7

0.64Expected goals (xG)1.81

4Corners7

21Fouls17

1Offsides2

6Saves0

⭐ Top-rated player: N. Jackson (Aston Villa) 8.9

Ratings and statistics: API-Football.

Confirmed lineups

Aston Villa · 4-2-3-1

1Z. SuzukiG
2M. CashD
3V. LindelöfD
14Pau TorresD
22I. MaatsenD
8B. KamaraM
35João GomesM
47Alysson EdwardM
7J. McGinnM
44J. ManzambiM
11N. JacksonF

Coach: Unai Emery

Manchester City · 4-2-3-1

1G. DonnarummaG
45A. KhusanovD
6M. GuéhiD
3Rúben DiasD
24J. GvardiolD
5E. AndersonM
17E. FernándezM
7I. NdiayeM
10R. CherkiM
11J. DokuM
9E. HaalandF

Coach: E. Maresca

Match facts

Recent form

Aston VillaDLWDW

Manchester CityWWWWW

Last 5 league games, latest on the right

Goals per game

·	Scored	Conceded
Aston Villa	1.0	1.6
Manchester City	2.7	1.0

League position

Pos	Team	P	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	7	+12	21
12	Aston Villa	7	-4	8

Last meetings

2026Manchester City1-2Aston Villa
2025Aston Villa1-0Manchester City
2025Manchester City2-1Aston Villa
2024Aston Villa2-1Manchester City
2024Manchester City4-1Aston Villa

Absences

Aston Villa

OutA. Onana · Knee Injury
OutM. Ruggeri · Muscle Injury
OutA. Wan-Bissaka · Muscle Injury
DoubtfulJ. Manzambi · Calf Injury

Manchester City

OutA. Semenyo · Knee Injury
DoubtfulM. Kovacic · Injury
DoubtfulM. Nunes · Knock
DoubtfulN. O'Reilly · Back Injury

PreviaXI model

Aston Villa26%Draw26%Manchester City48%

Predicted score: 1-2
Expected goals (model): 1.24 – 1.75
Double chance: 12 · 74%1X 52% · X2 74%
Over 2.5 goals: 57%
Both teams score: 60%
Expected corners: 9.84.2 – 5.6 · Over 9.5: 52%
Expected cards: 4.01.7 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 57%

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →

Manchester City have yet to drop a point this season, and Saturday’s trip to Birmingham will test whether that perfect start can survive an away day against a side that has been difficult to predict.

Leaders on the front foot

City sit top of the Premier League on 21 points from seven matches, with a goal difference of +12. Aston Villa are 12th on eight points, with a goal difference of -4, and their challenge is to stop a team that has won every league game so far.

City’s scoring machine

Over their last five matches, City have scored 13 times and conceded only five, averaging 2.6 goals per game. Across the season they have won all seven league fixtures, scoring 19 and conceding seven. Villa have also found the net regularly, with seven goals in their last five, but they have shipped six in the same period. At home they have won none of their three league games this season, drawing one and losing two.

Villa’s away-day pattern

Villa’s wins this season have come on the road. Two of their four away matches have ended in victory, while their home record reads one draw and two defeats. That contrast gives the hosts a clear task: turn their home ground into a place where they can take points against the table’s best side.

Recent meetings

Villa have had the better of recent encounters, winning three of the last five. They beat City 2-1 in May and 1-0 at Villa Park last October. City’s two wins in that run came by a 4-1 scoreline in April 2024 and a 2-1 victory in April 2025.

Team news

Villa will be without A. Onana (knee), M. Ruggeri (muscle) and A. Wan-Bissaka (muscle), while J. Manzambi (calf) is doubtful. City will miss A. Semenyo (knee), and M. Kovacic, M. Nunes and N. O’Reilly are all in doubt through injury, knock and back problems.

Our prediction

PreviaXI’s model favours Manchester City, and the football makes sense of it: City’s attack is in top form, they create the stronger chances, and Villa have leaked goals at home. Villa’s recent record against City and their missing defenders suggest the game could be tight and physical, but City’s momentum should be enough to edge a narrow away win.

Aston Villa 1-2 Manchester City

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