Stars League · Matchday 8 
Our pick2–1Correct result
Al Shamal aim to tighten the top race as they visit high-flying Al Sadd
Al Shamal head to Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium sitting sixth with nine points, hoping to close the gap in a fixture that matters for Al Sadd’s push near the summit. The hosts can consolidate their challenge in a match the stats model sees finishing 2-1.
📍 Jassim Bin Hamad Stadium
Preview written:
All Matchday 8 matchesFull head-to-head
Match report
Al Sadd beat Al Shamal 4-1. Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva put Al Sadd ahead in the 11th minute, assisted by Akram Afif. Riyad Mahrez converted a penalty for Al Shamal at 45+7, after Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane had been sent off in the 45th minute. Mohamed Camara restored Al Sadd’s lead in the 62nd minute, assisted by Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel, who also set up Akram Afif’s goal six minutes later. Roberto Firmino completed the scoring in the 80th minute, with Afif providing the assist.
Al Sadd had 53% possession and nine shots on target to Al Shamal’s six, while total shots were 12-15 in Al Shamal’s favour. The xG figures were 2.44 for Al Sadd and 1.97 for Al Shamal. Akram Afif was the top-rated player, with a 9.6 rating. The result differed from the pre-match model’s predicted 2-1 Al Sadd win, with probabilities of 56% for a home win, 20% for a draw and 24% for an away win.
Goals
- 11'Giovani Henrique Amorim da Silva · Akram Afif · Al Sadd
- 45+7'Riyad Mahrez (pen.) · Al Shamal
- 62'Mohamed Camara · Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel · Al Sadd
- 68'Akram Afif · Cláudio Luiz Rodrigues Parise Leonel · Al Sadd
- 80'Roberto Firmino · Akram Afif · Al Sadd
Cards
- 35'Mowafak Awad · Al Shamal
- 45'Mohamed Ali Ben Romdhane · Al Shamal
- 45'Baghdad Bounedjah · Al Shamal
- 90+3'Mostafa Mashaal · Al Sadd
Match stats
⭐ Top-rated player: Akram Afif (Al Sadd) 9.6
Ratings and statistics: API-Football.
Confirmed lineups
Al Sadd · 4-2-3-1
- 22Meshaal BarshamG
- 3Y. El HannachD
- 2Pedro MiguelD
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD
- 6Paulo OtávioD
- 4M. CamaraM
- 33ClaudinhoM
- 11GiovaniM
- 9Roberto FirminoM
- 30Akram AfifM
- 12Y. AbdurisagF
Coach: R. Lucescu
Al Shamal · 4-2-3-1
- 95B. SeckG
- 2Moufak AwadD
- 37Ahmed SuhailD
- 4Pablo MaríD
- 3Abdelkarim HassanD
- 70Tiago SilvaM
- 28N. BenaïssaM
- 26R. MahrezM
- 8Ali AsadM
- 5M. Ben RomdhaneM
- 11B. BounedjahF
Coach: David Prats
Match facts
Recent form
Last 5 league games, latest on the right
Goals per game
| · | Scored | Conceded |
|---|---|---|
| Al Sadd | 3.9 | 1.9 |
| Al Shamal | 1.7 | 1.9 |
League position
| Pos | Team | P | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Al Sadd | 7 | +14 | 15 |
| 6 | Al Shamal | 7 | -1 | 9 |
Last meetings
- 2026Al Shamal4-6Al Sadd
- 2026Al Sadd3-2Al Shamal
- 2025Al Shamal0-3Al Sadd
- 2025Al Sadd1-0Al Shamal
- 2024Al Shamal2-1Al Sadd
PreviaXI model
Model confidence: Medium
- Predicted score
- 2-1
- Expected goals (model)
- 2.54 – 1.65
- Double chance
- 12 · 80%1X 76% · X2 44%
- Over 2.5 goals
- 79%Over 1.5: 93% · Over 3.5: 60%
- Both teams score
- 75%
- Clean sheet
- 19% – 8%Al Sadd–Al Shamal
- Half-time result
- 1 · 45%X 31% · 2 24%
- Half-time / full-time
- 1/1 · 37%X/1 15% · 2/2 14%
- Expected corners
- 10.75.3 – 5.4 · Over 9.5: 63%
- Expected cards
- 4.62.3 – 2.3 · Over 3.5: 66%
- Most likely scores
- 2-18%
- 1-17%
- 3-17%
- 2-27%
- 3-26%
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG), results and match statistics from the last two seasons. For information only. How our model works →
A top-table ripple in Doha
Al Shamal arrive in Doha sixth in the Stars League on nine points from seven games; a positive result would trim the distance to the top pack. Al Sadd sit second with 15 points and a healthy +14 goal difference, so this fixture carries clear consequences for the title and qualification race — a win for Al Sadd would strengthen their position at the top end of the table, while any slip would invite pressure from rivals.
Momentum and recent form
Al Sadd’s form shows five wins from seven across the season and an attacking output that has produced 27 goals in seven matches. Their last five indicate a strong attacking trend (home last five attacking 72%) and heavy scoring: they average 3.9 goals per game this season. Al Shamal have been less prolific; twelve goals in seven matches and a mixed run (DWWDLDL overall) leave them with a lower attacking profile. In the last five away outings Al Shamal’s attacking metric sits at 28% while their defense is comparable on paper.
When they’ve met recently
Recent meetings have been high-scoring and largely in Al Sadd’s favour. The last five include a 6-4 cup thriller in May and league wins for Al Sadd by 3-2 and 3-0 in April and December respectively. Historically those results give Al Sadd an edge in this matchup.
Tactical matchups to watch
Al Sadd score consistently across the first half and late periods; they have spread their goals through 0–45 minutes and again late in matches. Al Shamal tend to score later too, with nearly half of their goals between 76–90 minutes in recent fixtures. Expect an open game with chances at both ends.
Our prediction
PreviaXI’s model identifies a narrow home victory as the likeliest outcome. Al Sadd’s superior scoring rate and goal difference, combined with home attacking strength, should be enough to break down Al Shamal’s resilient defence. A close, goal-filled match suits both sides’ recent trends.
Al Sadd 2-1 Al Shamal
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