Adelaide United target a standings climb against Melbourne Victory

A chance to climb

Adelaide United have conceded six goals in two league matches, the most striking statistic ahead of Sunday’s meeting with Melbourne Victory. They are 12th of 12 with no points, while Victory sit ninth on two points after three matches. The clubs are separated by three places and two points, although Adelaide have played once fewer.

That makes this an early opportunity for Adelaide to begin climbing the standings. Their task is complicated by a difficult start, but Victory have yet to win and arrive with their own need to turn draws into a first victory.

Opposing runs

Adelaide’s two league outings have both ended in defeat. They have scored once and conceded six, and their current run stands at two losses in a row. They have also yet to keep a clean sheet.

Victory have drawn their last two after opening with a defeat, leaving them without a win in three matches. They have scored three and conceded four across those games, with no clean sheets. Away from home, their only league match ended in a 2-1 defeat.

A rivalry that delivers goals

The last five meetings are evenly split: Melbourne Victory have won twice, Adelaide United twice, and one match was drawn. The latest encounter, in February, ended 1-1.

The earlier meetings suggest this fixture can be open: four of those five produced more than two goals. Adelaide’s 2-1 home win in January is a recent reminder that Victory are far from assured of taking the points.

Players to watch

With Adelaide having scored just once across their two league matches, their attacking threat will be central to the climb they are seeking. They will need a more productive display to make Victory’s defensive record count: the visitors have conceded four times in three matches and are yet to record a clean sheet.

Victory, meanwhile, have scored in each of their three league matches. Finding a way to build on that consistency could put pressure on an Adelaide side that has conceded six in two.

Our prediction

The sides’ contrasting starts make this finely balanced, but the statistical model narrowly favours Melbourne Victory. Their steadier scoring record gives them a slight edge against an Adelaide defence that has conceded six goals, though the home side’s urgency to climb should keep the contest competitive.

Adelaide United 1-2 Melbourne Victory